Evansville vs Murray State

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-07 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-07 11:50 AM EST

Evansville vs Murray State on 2026-01-07

Game Times

ET: 8:00 PM
CT: 7:00 PM
MT: 6:00 PM
PT: 5:00 PM
AKT: 4:00 PM
HST: 2:00 PM

💰 Best Bet #1 Murray State / Spread / -8.5 at -110 / 58% / Murray State’s strong defensive efficiency and Evansville’s recent scoring droughts create a clear edge, with simulation covering 55% against implied odds.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 135.5 at -110 / 65% / Both teams’ low offensive outputs in conference play, combined with Murray State’s havoc rate, point to a controlled, low-scoring affair below the line.
💰 Best Bet #3 Murray State / Moneyline / -350 / 73% / Dominant win probability from adjusted efficiencies and Evansville’s 0-5 conference skid outweighs home advantage.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Evansville | 25.0% |
| Win % for Murray State | 73.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Murray State -8.5 | 55.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 35.0% / Under: 65.0% |
| Average Total Points | 135.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [4.0, 12.0] |

💸 Public Bets
75% Murray State / 25% Evansville

💰 Money Distribution
65% Murray State / 35% Evansville

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Stable at -8.5, opening at -7.5 with no significant shifts despite public lean.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4% on Murray State spread, driven by simulation probabilities exceeding implied odds and Evansville’s poor recent efficiency.

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Murray State, aligning with sharp money distribution and stable lines, making a follow strategy optimal as metrics confirm the favorite’s edge without contrarian signals like RLM. Evansville’s seven-game skid and low scoring (under 50 points recently) clash with Murray State’s portal-boosted roster for a lopsided matchup. Overall game scoring outlook leans low, with defensive rebounding and turnover rates suggesting a total well under 140 based on current season efficiencies.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Murray State — simulation and market consensus highlight the highest probability of a Racers victory and cover.

Highlights unavailable.