Florida Atlantic vs St. Bonaventure

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-30 03:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-30 11:08 AM EST

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 Florida Atlantic / Spread / -4.5 at -105 / 58% / Simulation shows 58.4% cover probability; St. Bonaventure faces first true road game after neutral-site play, while FAU boasts superior strength of schedule (31st vs 252nd).

💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 154.5 at -110 / 52% / Monte Carlo average total of 153.7 points with 51.2% over probability; both teams’ recent efficiencies and midrange-heavy offenses suggest pace pushes above line despite defensive metrics.

💰 Best Bet #3 Florida Atlantic / Moneyline / -210 / 68% / 68.2% win probability from sim aligns with home advantage and matchup edges in tempo and rebounding.

🏀 Matchup: Florida Atlantic vs St. Bonaventure on 2025-11-30

Game Times

ET: 3:30 PM
CT: 2:30 PM
MT: 1:30 PM
PT: 12:30 PM
AKT: 11:30 AM
HST: 9:30 AM

💸 Public Bets
Florida Atlantic 68% / St. Bonaventure 32%

💰 Money Distribution
Florida Atlantic 72% / St. Bonaventure 28%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Opened -4, steady at -4.5 despite moderate public action on home favorite; no significant RLM observed.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Florida Atlantic | 68.2% |
| Win % for St. Bonaventure | 31.8% |
| Spread Cover % for Florida Atlantic | 58.4% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 51.2% / Under: 48.8% |
| Average Total Points | 153.7 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-4.2, 14.8] |

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on Florida Atlantic -4.5 (implied prob 51.7% vs true 58.4% from sim/contextual adjustments including SOS and road fatigue).

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans toward the home favorite Florida Atlantic, aligning with sharp money indicators and simulation outcomes favoring a cover. Follow the public here as metrics confirm value without contrarian signals like RLM. Game projects as moderately high-scoring with offenses exploiting midrange and rebounding edges, pushing toward the over.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Florida Atlantic — strongest mathematical probability backed by 68% win sim, home court, and EV on spread.

Highlights unavailable.