Florida Panthers vs Calgary Flames

League: NHL | Date: 2025-11-28 04:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-28 02:59 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Florida Panthers / Spread / -1.5 at -110 / 58% / Panthers hold a strong home edge with Flames struggling on the road (4-10-1), supported by recent form and key Flames injuries limiting their offense.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 6.0 at -110 / 62% / Both teams’ defensive metrics show low xGA per 60, with Panthers allowing under 2.5 goals recently; flipped recommendation per NHL historical trends despite moderate scoring pace.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Florida Panthers / Moneyline / -192 / 65% / Panthers’ superior record (12-10-1) and home-ice advantage outweigh Flames’ poor away performance, with line movement favoring Florida.]

Florida Panthers vs Calgary Flames on 2025-11-28

Game Times

ET: 4:00 PM
CT: 3:00 PM
MT: 2:00 PM
PT: 1:00 PM
AKT: 12:00 PM
HST: 10:00 AM

💸 Public Bets

[70% / 30%]

💰 Money Distribution

[85% / 15%]

💹 Market Alignment

[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at Panthers -1.5 (-105) and moved to -110 with heavy money on Florida, indicating sharp support despite public favoritism.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+4% on Panthers spread; convergence of home form, Flames road woes, and RLM against public overbet on favorite creates value.]

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Florida Panthers | 65% |
| Win % for Calgary Flames | 35% |
| Spread Cover % for Florida Panthers | 58% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Goals | 5.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2, +3] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Sam Reinhart / Over Shots on Goal / 3.5 at -120 / 72% / Reinhart averages 3.8 SOG per game in current season, exploiting Flames’ weak PK (78%) and high-danger vulnerabilities.
Player Prop #2: Nazem Kadri / Under Points / 0.5 at -110 / 68% / Kadri held scoreless in 6 of last 10 road games against top defenses like Panthers’ (top-5 PK at 82%), with limited usage due to line demotion.
Player Prop #3: Matthew Tkachuk / Over Points / 0.5 at +105 / 70% / Tkachuk returns from injury with high usage (22% TOI), averaging 1.2 points vs. Flames historically; matchup favors Panthers’ power play against Calgary’s bottom-10 unit.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors the Panthers, aligning with sharp money and line movement, making a follow strategy optimal as EV supports the favorite without overvaluation. Flames’ injuries to key forwards like Pospisil and Honzek weaken their attack, while Panthers’ depth holds despite absences like Barkov. Overall game outlook leans low-scoring with both teams’ strong defensive xGA (Panthers 2.4, Flames 2.8 per 60) and goaltending edges.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Follow the public with Florida Panthers] — mathematical probability favors their win based on form, injuries, and market consensus.

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