Florida vs Florida State

League: NCAAF | Date: 2025-11-29 04:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-29 09:49 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Florida State / +1.5 / -110 / 62% / FSU shows superior offensive efficiency (6.1 ypp) vs Florida’s weak defense; sim cover 54% exceeds implied 50%; RLM supports]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / 50.5 / -110 / 58% / Combined avg 49 pts in sim, Florida recent unders (16/10 pts scored), FSU road unders as dog 76%; defensive havoc rates limit explosiveness]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Florida State / Moneyline / +105 / 55% / 49% win prob vs 48.8% implied; better record (5-6 vs 3-8), key wins like Alabama boost edge]

🏈 Florida vs Florida State on 2025-11-29

Game Times
ET: 04:30 PM
CT: 03:30 PM
MT: 02:30 PM
PT: 01:30 PM
AKT: 12:30 PM
HST: 10:30 AM

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Florida | 48.0% |
| Win % for Florida State | 49.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Florida -1.5 | 46.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 49.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-20.2, 18.7] |

💸 Public Bets
Florida 68% / Florida State 32%

💰 Money Distribution
Florida 42% / Florida State 58%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Opened Florida -2.5, steamed to Florida -1.5 despite public on home side—indicating sharp action on FSU

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on FSU +1.5 (54% model prob vs 50% implied); under +2.8% EV from pace-adjusted totals

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: DJ Lagway / Under 210.5 Pass Yards / -110 / 72% / Florida QB recent avg 185 yds vs strong defenses like LSU/USF; FSU pass def allows 210 ypp, low explosive rate limits ceiling
Player Prop #2: Thomas Castellanos / Over 55.5 Rushing Yards / -115 / 68% / FSU QB dual-threat 72 yds avg last 3; Florida rush def vulnerable (5.5 ypp allowed), high success rate on designed runs
Player Prop #3: Roydell Williams / Over 48.5 Receiving Yards / -110 / 70% / FSU WR top target (8 rec/65 yds avg); Florida secondary ranks poor in havoc (low forced incompletions), usage spikes in rivalry

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public leans heavily toward home-favorite Florida in the rivalry, but divergent money distribution and reverse line movement signal sharp support for FSU, aligning with superior offensive metrics and simulation outcomes. Florida’s offense struggles (recent 16/10 pts scored), pairing with FSU’s solid defense for a low-scoring affair under the total. Fade public optimal here as EV converges on underdog value without contradicting injuries or trends.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Florida State +1.5 — highest probability edge confirmed by sim, market signals, and current-season form.

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