Fresno St Bulldogs vs South Carolina Upstate Spartans

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-05 09:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-05 05:59 PM EST

Fresno St Bulldogs vs South Carolina Upstate Spartans on 2025-11-05

💰 Best Bet #1 Fresno St Bulldogs / Spread / -9.5 at -110 / 58% / Fresno State’s superior adjusted efficiency (108 off/102 def) and home advantage against an Upstate team allowing 87 points in their opener support covering the spread, aligned with simulation cover rate.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 164.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams’ early tempos (Fresno 70.5, Upstate 68.2) and defensive metrics suggest a controlled pace, with simulation favoring under by a slim margin based on recent form and matchup.

💰 Best Bet #3 Fresno St Bulldogs / Moneyline / -550 / 80% / Dominant win probability from simulation (78%) and Fresno’s 1-0 start with 85 PPG outweigh Upstate’s road struggles post-loss.

Game Times

ET: 9:00 PM
CT: 8:00 PM
MT: 7:00 PM
PT: 6:00 PM
AKT: 5:00 PM
HST: 4:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
78% Fresno St Bulldogs / 22% South Carolina Upstate Spartans

💰 Money Distribution
65% Fresno St Bulldogs / 35% South Carolina Upstate Spartans

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at -8.5 and moved to -9.5 with balanced action, showing stability as public leans heavy on the favorite without significant sharp pushback.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3% on Fresno spread; simulation and efficiency edges confirm value despite public favoritism, with no reverse movement indicating consensus.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Fresno St Bulldogs | 78% |
| Win % for South Carolina Upstate Spartans | 22% |
| Spread Cover % for Fresno St Bulldogs | 55% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 165 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-14.2, 34.8] |

Player props unavailable due to roster verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Fresno State, aligning with sharp money distribution and simulation outcomes, making a follow strategy optimal without contrarian value. Upstate’s recent defensive lapses (87 allowed) face Fresno’s efficient offense, but overall matchup points to moderate scoring around 165 total. No major injuries reported, supporting the projected edges.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Fresno St Bulldogs — simulation and market consensus highlight strong win probability at home.

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