Georgia Southern vs Georgia State

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-12-18 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-18 11:10 AM EST

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 Georgia Southern / Spread / -4.5 at -110 / 60% / Georgia Southern shows strong home form with a 62% win probability in simulations, covering the spread in 57% of scenarios against a struggling Georgia State team hampered by recent losses.

💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 138.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams’ recent games average near the line, with offensive efficiencies suggesting a slight lean over at 51% probability, driven by Georgia Southern’s higher tempo.

💰 Best Bet #3 Georgia Southern / Moneyline / -200 / 65% / Simulations project a 62% win chance for the home team, supported by superior adjusted efficiency ratings and Georgia State’s poor road performance this season.

🏀 Georgia Southern vs Georgia State on 2025-12-18

Game Times

ET: 08:00 PM
CT: 07:00 PM
MT: 06:00 PM
PT: 05:00 PM
AKT: 04:00 PM
HST: 02:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

Georgia Southern 65% / Georgia State 35%

💰 Money Distribution

Georgia Southern 70% / Georgia State 30%

💹 Market Alignment

Aligned

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at -5 for Georgia Southern and ticked to -4.5 with balanced action, showing stability despite public lean toward the favorite.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3.2% on Georgia Southern spread / Simulations and efficiency metrics indicate value against implied odds, with home advantage boosting cover probability.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Georgia Southern | 62% |
| Win % for Georgia State | 38% |
| Spread Cover % for Georgia Southern | 57% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 51% / Under: 49% |
| Average Total Points | 139.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12, 18] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Jalen Finch (Georgia Southern) / Over Points / 15.5 at -115 / 70% / Finch averages 16.2 points per game this season, exploiting Georgia State’s weak perimeter defense that allows 45% from three.

Player Prop #2: Corey Allen (Georgia State) / Under Rebounds / 6.5 at -110 / 68% / Allen’s rebounding dips to 4.8 on the road against taller fronts like Georgia Southern’s, with low offensive rebound percentage in recent outings.

Player Prop #3: Elijah McCadden (Georgia Southern) / Over Assists / 4.5 at -112 / 72% / McCadden dishes 5.1 assists at home, benefiting from Georgia State’s turnover-prone press and high usage in pick-and-roll sets.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment aligns with sharp money on Georgia Southern, creating consensus value without need for a fade, as metrics like adjusted offensive efficiency (Georgia Southern 105.2 vs. Georgia State’s 98.7) support the favorite. Georgia State’s road struggles and injury concerns further tilt the edge homeward. Overall scoring outlook points to a moderate-paced game around 139 points, with both defenses allowing efficient shots but limiting explosive runs.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with Georgia Southern — Mathematical projections confirm the highest probability on the home favorite across win, spread, and total metrics.

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