NCAAB

Georgia vs Texas

League: NCAAB | Game Time: 3:30 PM ET • 2:30 PM CT • 1:30 PM MT • 12:30 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-21 09:21 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Georgia Bulldogs / Spread / -2.5 at -110 / 57% / Simulation cover rate of 55% exceeds implied breakeven (52%); home advantage, recent form averaging 86 PPG scored outweigh public lean to underdog

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 163.5 at -115 / 54% / Money 56% on under aligns with defensive matchups and simulation avg total 163.5; recent Georgia games trended high but opponent strength suggests regression

💰 Best Bet #3 Georgia Bulldogs / Moneyline / -156 / 60% / Model win probability 59% near implied 61% but positive EV from spread convergence and home splits

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Georgia Bulldogs | 59.0% |
| Win % for Texas Longhorns | 41.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Georgia Bulldogs | 55.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 50% / Under: 50% |
| Average Total Points | 163.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-25.2, 30.1] |

Georgia Bulldogs vs Texas Longhorns

💸 Public Bets
Georgia 47% / Texas 53%

💰 Money Distribution
Georgia 42% / Texas 58%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Stable across sportsbooks

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+2.5% on Georgia -2.5; model 55% cover vs. 52% implied, supported by simulation and home scoring trends despite money on dog

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public bets and money distribution align on Texas +2.5, indicating consensus against the favorite, but simulation reveals value on Georgia spread with 55% cover probability. Recent Georgia form shows solid offense (86 PPG avg last 3), projecting competitive but home-favored outcome. Overall scoring outlook moderate, with even over/under split but under edge from money flow.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Texas — simulation and metrics favor Georgia cover for mathematical edge.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

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