NBA
Golden State Warriors vs 
Denver Nuggets
League: NBA | Game Time: 3:30 PM ET • 2:30 PM CT • 1:30 PM MT • 12:30 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-22 07:06 AM EST
💰 Best Bet #1 Denver Nuggets / -5.5 / -110 / 54% / Sim shows 52% DEN cover rate amid GSW missing Curry/Butler, recent form yields -3.4 avg margin
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / 230.5 / -110 / 62% / Avg sim total 226, both teams avg ~109 PPG scored/allowed recently with key injuries limiting pace/offense
💰 Best Bet #3 Denver Nuggets / -220 / 68% / 65% / 68% win prob aligns with heavy sharp money on ML, public fade opportunity despite injuries
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Golden State Warriors | 32% |
| Win % for Denver Nuggets | 68% |
| Spread Cover % for Golden State Warriors | 48% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 38% / Under: 62% |
| Average Total Points | 226 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-18, 30] |
🏀 Matchup: Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets on 2026-02-22
💸 Public Bets
[53% / 47%]
💰 Money Distribution
[58% / 42%]
💹 Market Alignment
Divergent
📉 Line Movement
Line stable at -5.5 / 230.5 per available data
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3% on Nuggets -5.5 (52% model cover vs ~52% implied); +6% Under (62% prob vs 52% implied); injuries and low recent totals (avg 221 combined) support contrarian under despite public lean
Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public bets slightly favor Warriors spread (+5.5) at 53%, but money tilts heavier to home (58%) creating divergence from ML steam on Nuggets (73% bets/78% money); fade public on dog justified by sim edges, RLM absent, and injuries (Curry/Butler out GSW, Gordon/Watson out DEN but Murray probable). Overall low-scoring outlook with depleted rosters, recent PPG unders, and sim avg 226 vs 230.5 line. Sharp money convergence boosts confidence in Nuggets ML/spread.
🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Warriors +5.5 — model and money % point to Nuggets cover with superior win prob.
Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.
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