Golden State Warriors vs Oklahoma City Thunder

League: NBA | Date: 2025-12-02 11:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-02 07:08 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Oklahoma City Thunder / Spread / -11.5 at -110 / 58% / Thunder’s elite record (20-1) and sim cover rate hold despite defensive injuries; line movement to -11.5 signals sharp money amid public support.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 223.5 at -110 / 54% / Teams’ defensive metrics and injuries to key scorers like Curry point to low-scoring affair; avg sim total 223.2 aligns with under edge.
💰 Best Bet #3 Oklahoma City Thunder / Moneyline / -650 / 72% / Dominant season pace and 72% sim win probability overpower Warriors’ home edge and injury concerns.

Golden State Warriors vs Oklahoma City Thunder on 2025-12-02

Game Times
ET: 11:00 PM
CT: 10:00 PM
MT: 9:00 PM
PT: 8:00 PM
AKT: 7:00 PM
HST: 5:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Oklahoma City Thunder 75% / Golden State Warriors 25%

💰 Money Distribution
Oklahoma City Thunder 68% / Golden State Warriors 32%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Opened OKC -10, moved to -11.5 amid sharp action on Thunder despite heavy public support

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% EV on OKC spread; sim convergence with RLM confirms value despite public fade resistance

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Golden State Warriors | 28% |
| Win % for Oklahoma City Thunder | 72% |
| Spread Cover % for Golden State Warriors (+11.5) | 45% |
| Spread Cover % for Golden State Warriors (-11.5) | 55% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 49% / Under: 51% |
| Average Total Points | 223.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin (OKC – GSW) | [ -2.1, 28.4 ] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors the Thunder, aligning with money distribution and sharp-driven line movement to -11.5, supporting a follow rather than fade. OKC’s injuries to Dort, Caruso, and Hartenstein weaken perimeter defense but their depth and pace maintain edge over injury-hit Warriors (Curry concerns, Horford out). Game outlook leans low-scoring with combined defensive ratings and missing offensive pieces projecting under the total.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Oklahoma City Thunder — sim win probability, EV, and market consensus confirm highest mathematical edge.

Highlights unavailable.