Green Bay Packers vs Philadelphia Eagles

League: NFL | Date: 2025-11-10 08:15 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-10 05:00 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Green Bay Packers / Spread / -1.5 at +100 / 55% / Packers hold a slight edge at home with superior EPA per play in recent games, covering in 6 of last 8 as favorites; simulation shows 52% cover rate despite line tightening.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 45.5 at -108 / 54% / Both teams rank top-10 in defensive success rate this season, allowing under 20 points per game lately; average simulated total of 46 but with 52% under probability factoring cold weather at Lambeau.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Green Bay Packers / Moneyline / -110 / 55% / Jordan Love’s CPOE leads NFC, and Packers win 70% at home vs .500+ teams; 55% win probability edges implied odds for positive EV.]

Green Bay Packers vs Philadelphia Eagles on 2025-11-10

Game Times

ET: 08:15 PM
CT: 07:15 PM
MT: 06:15 PM
PT: 05:15 PM
AKT: 04:15 PM
HST: 02:15 PM

💸 Public Bets

[48% Packers / 52% Eagles]

💰 Money Distribution

[58% Packers / 42% Eagles]

💹 Market Alignment

Divergent

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at Packers -2.5 but has moved to -1 across books like DraftKings and FanDuel, indicating sharp action on Eagles despite steady public interest on the underdog; total steady at 45-45.5 with slight under juice.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+2.5% on Packers spread — implied probability undervalues home-field and defensive metrics, with RLM supporting Packers amid divergent money flow.

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Jordan Love / Over Rush Yards / 9.5 at -108 / 72% / Love has cleared this in 5 of 8 starts, averaging 12.4 rush yards; Eagles rank 3rd-worst vs mobile QBs, allowing 8.2 rush attempts per game to signal-callers.
Player Prop #2: Josh Jacobs / Anytime TD / Yes at -172 / 65% / Jacobs scored in 5 straight, with 7 TDs in 8 games; Packers defense allows 1.2 RB rushing TDs per contest, boosting red-zone usage.
Player Prop #3: Jalen Hurts / Over Passing TDs / 1.5 at +122 / 58% / Hurts hit this in 4 of last 5, throwing 2+ in high-possession games; Packers secondary vulnerable post-bye, with 1.8 pass TDs allowed per game to QBs.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|———————————|————————|
| Win % for Green Bay Packers | 55% |
| Win % for Philadelphia Eagles | 42% |
| Spread Cover % for Green Bay Packers | 52% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 46 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-9.5, 14.2] |

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public leans slightly toward the Eagles as road underdogs, but money distribution favors the Packers, creating divergence that aligns with sharp resistance via reverse line movement. Following the Packers offers optimal value given their home dominance and defensive efficiency against Philly’s run-heavy scheme. Overall scoring projects low due to both teams’ top-12 red-zone defenses and chilly Lambeau conditions, supporting the under.

🔮 Recommended Play

Fade the public on Eagles — Packers moneyline and spread provide the strongest mathematical edge based on simulation and market signals.

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