Hawaii vs UC Davis

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-12-04 11:59 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-04 08:32 AM EST

Hawaii vs UC Davis on 2025-12-04

💰 Best Bet #1 Hawaii / Spread / -3.5 at -110 / 58% / Hawaii leverages home-court advantage in Honolulu with superior adjusted efficiency and recent form against non-conference foes, covering in 6 of last 8 home games per current season trends.

💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 145.5 at -110 / 54% / Both teams play moderate tempo with Hawaii allowing 78 ppg at home and UC Davis scoring 75+ in 4 of 5 road games this season; pace and defensive lapses favor high-scoring affair.

💰 Best Bet #3 Hawaii / Moneyline / -175 / 62% / Simulations show Hawaii winning outright 62% of the time, supported by Big West home dominance and UC Davis’ travel fatigue.

Game Times
ET: 11:59 PM
CT: 10:59 PM
MT: 9:59 PM
PT: 8:59 PM
AKT: 7:59 PM
HST: 5:59 PM

💸 Public Bets
Hawaii 68% / UC Davis 32%

💰 Money Distribution
Hawaii 59% / UC Davis 41%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Opened Hawaii -2.5, moved to -3.5 on sharp action despite public lean; total steady at 145.5.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4.2% on Hawaii spread due to RLM against public %, home splits, and efficiency edges.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Hawaii | 62.3% |
| Win % for UC Davis | 37.7% |
| Spread Cover % for Hawaii -3.5 | 58.1% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 54.2% / Under: 45.8% |
| Average Total Points | 148.7 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-8.2, 15.4] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Noel Coleman (Hawaii) / Over Points / 17.5 at -115 / 72% / Averaging 19.2 ppg in home games this season, high usage vs UC Davis weak perimeter D allowing 38% 3PT.
Player Prop #2: Ty Johnson (UC Davis) / Over Points / 14.5 at -110 / 68% / 16.1 ppg on road, Hawaii concedes 15+ to opposing guards in recent matchups.
Player Prop #3: Hawaii Team Total / Over 75.5 at -108 / 65% / Home offense at 82 ppg pace, UC Davis allows 78.4 road, tempo mismatch boosts scoring.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public heavily on Hawaii but money split indicates sharp divergence on spread, with RLM confirming value fading heavy public tickets. Game projects moderately high-scoring with both teams’ defensive rebounding weaknesses and neutral pace. Follow sharp indicators over public sentiment for optimal EV.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Hawaii spread — line movement and sims confirm edge despite popularity.

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