Hawai'i vs Wyoming

League: NCAAF | Date: 2025-11-29 11:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-29 10:15 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Hawai’i -7.5 at -110 | 58% Confidence
Hawai’i holds strong home advantage at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex, with 7-4 record vs Wyoming’s 4-7 struggles on road; line movement from -10.5 supports value despite public lean.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under 54.5 at -110 | 55% Confidence
Recent games show low totals—Hawai’i avg 22 pts scored/allowed mix, Wyoming offense abysmal (avg ~16 pts); defensive metrics and Wyoming’s recent shutout/low scores favor under.

💰 Best Bet #3 Hawai’i Moneyline -315 | 68% Confidence
Superior record, home field, and Wyoming eliminated from bowls with poor form make Hawai’i clear ML favorite with positive EV.

Hawai’i vs Wyoming on 2025-11-29

Game Times
ET: 11:00 PM
CT: 10:00 PM
MT: 9:00 PM
PT: 8:00 PM
AKT: 7:00 PM
HST: 5:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Hawai’i 72% / Wyoming 28%

💰 Money Distribution
Hawai’i 65% / Wyoming 35%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Opened Hawai’i -10.5, moved to -7.5 despite heavy public on favorite—mild RLM indicating sharp interest in Hawai’i cover.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4.2% on Hawai’i -7.5; convergence of home metrics, Wyoming offensive woes (220 yds last game), and sim probs exceed implied odds.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Hawai’i | 68.2% |
| Win % for Wyoming | 31.8% |
| Spread Cover % for Hawai’i -7.5 | 57.4% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over 54.5: 48.1% / Under: 51.9% |
| Average Total Points | 44.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-9.2, 28.1] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Evan Svoboda (Wyoming) / Under Rushing Yards / 65.5 / -115 / 72% Confidence — Svoboda key back but Wyoming offense abysmal (recent 220 total yds), Hawai’i run D solid vs weak lines.

Player Prop #2: Micah Alejado (Hawai’i) / Over Passing Yards / 220.5 / -110 / 65% Confidence — Home QB efficient, Wyoming secondary vulnerable; recent form shows 250+ yds potential in favorable matchup.

Player Prop #3: Landon Sims (Hawai’i) / Over Receiving Yards / 45.5 / -112 / 68% Confidence — Primary target with Wyoming pass D allowing explosive plays; usage rate high in home games.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public heavily on Hawai’i aligns with money % but mild RLM and sim data confirm value in following on spread rather than full fade. Wyoming’s “abysmal” offense per HC limits scoring, pairing with Hawai’i’s home defense for low-total outlook. Overall, math favors home side across boards.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Hawai’i — strongest probabilities on spread and ML per metrics and sim.

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