Houston Rockets vs Chicago Bulls

League: NBA | Date: 2026-01-13 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-13 06:14 PM EST

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 Houston Rockets / Spread / -13.5 at -110 / 60% / Rockets’ strong home defense and Bulls’ key absences like Coby White and Josh Giddey create a mismatch, with simulation showing 58.4% cover rate and recent form favoring Houston by double digits.

💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 225.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams play at a moderate pace with Houston’s offense averaging 114 points recently; injuries thin the Bulls’ perimeter but expose interior scoring, aligning with 52.1% over probability from sim and current season trends.

💰 Best Bet #3 Houston Rockets / Moneyline / -488 / 65% / Houston’s 62.3% win probability in simulations, bolstered by home advantage and Chicago’s road struggles (18-20 record), offers value despite juice.

Houston Rockets vs Chicago Bulls on 2026-01-13

Game Times

ET: 8:00 PM
CT: 7:00 PM
MT: 6:00 PM
PT: 5:00 PM
AKT: 4:00 PM
HST: 2:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

Houston Rockets 72% / Chicago Bulls 28%

💰 Money Distribution

Houston Rockets 81% / Chicago Bulls 19%

💹 Market Alignment

Aligned

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at -12.5 for Houston and moved to -13.5 amid heavy public action on the favorite, with no significant reverse movement indicating sharp support for the Rockets despite the juice.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3.2% on Rockets spread / Consensus from line stability and injury impacts shows positive EV on home side, as Bulls’ absences inflate Houston’s efficiency edge without overvaluing the public lean.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Houston Rockets | 62.3% |
| Win % for Chicago Bulls | 37.7% |
| Spread Cover % for Houston Rockets | 58.4% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52.1% / Under: 47.9% |
| Average Total Points | 226.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12.5, 18.2] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Alperen Sengun / Over Points / 21.5 at -154 / 70% / Sengun’s 24.2 PPG average this season surges against Bulls’ weak interior (allowing 118 points per game to centers); his usage rises with VanVleet out, hitting over in 8 of last 10 home games.

Player Prop #2: Matas Buzelis / Over Points / 16.5 at -121 / 65% / As a rookie starter amid Chicago’s injuries, Buzelis averages 15.8 but exploits Houston’s forward defense (opponents shoot 48% inside); over in 70% of recent starts with elevated minutes.

Player Prop #3: Amen Thompson / Over Rebounds / 7.5 at -110 / 68% / Thompson’s rebounding rate climbs to 12.4% without Eason, facing a Bulls frontcourt depleted by Collins’ absence; grabbed 8+ in 7 of last 9, supported by Houston’s pace pushing extra possessions.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors the Rockets, aligning with sharp money on the spread and total as line movement confirms without divergence, making a follow strategy optimal given the +EV from simulations and contextual edges like Chicago’s injuries. Houston’s defensive rating (108.2 at home) limits the Bulls’ scoring, but overall game outlook points to a moderate total with over slightly favored due to pace and matchup inefficiencies. No contrarian fade is justified, as metrics converge on home dominance.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with Houston Rockets — Mathematical probability favors the home win at 62.3%, driven by superior form and opponent weaknesses.

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