Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars

League: NFL | Date: 2025-11-09 01:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-09 07:03 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Jacksonville Jaguars / Spread / -1.5 at +100 / 55% / Jaguars hold edge with 5-3 record and superior EPA metrics against Texans’ injury-hit defense, including Stroud’s absence tilting simulations toward a multi-score margin.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 37.5 at -112 / 52% / Both teams average under 20 points recently in low-pace games, with Jaguars’ top-8 defensive success rate and Texans’ bottom-10 offensive EPA projecting a grind-it-out affair below the line.
💰 Best Bet #3 Jacksonville Jaguars / Moneyline / -115 / 55% / Jaguars’ 55% simulated win probability aligns with their better turnover margin and road form, offering value against a hobbled home side.

Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars on 2025-11-09

Game Times

ET: 1:00 PM
CT: 12:00 PM
MT: 11:00 AM
PT: 10:00 AM
AKT: 9:00 AM
HST: 7:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
Texans 42% / Jaguars 58%

💰 Money Distribution
Texans 38% / Jaguars 62%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Opened at pick’em but shifted to Jaguars -1.5 amid heavy public action on the road favorite, with no significant sharp counter-movement evident in high-volume betting.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3% on Jaguars spread, driven by implied probability (51%) versus simulated cover rate (52%), bolstered by Texans’ key injuries reducing their offensive output without contradicting market consensus.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Houston Texans | 45% |
| Win % for Jacksonville Jaguars | 55% |
| Spread Cover % for Houston Texans (+1.5) | 48% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 36.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-6.2, +5.1] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Trevor Lawrence / Over 225.5 Passing Yards / -110 / 70% / Lawrence averages 245 yards in recent starts against depleted secondaries like Houston’s (missing Pitre), with Jaguars’ 55% pass rate and high usage exploiting Mills’ lower CPOE.
Player Prop #2: Nico Collins / Under 60.5 Receiving Yards / -115 / 65% / With Stroud sidelined and Texans’ offense at 5.1 yards/play, Collins sees reduced targets (under 60 yards in 4 of last 6 without elite QB), facing Jaguars’ top-8 pass defense allowing 180 net yards/game.
Player Prop #3: Travis Etienne Jr. / Over 55.5 Rushing Yards / -110 / 68% / Etienne’s 4.8 yards/carry edges up against Houston’s run defense (4th-worst red-zone TD allowance), with 18+ touches projected in a game script favoring ground control and Jaguars’ 58% TD efficiency.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans toward the Jaguars with aligned sharp money, creating no clear fade opportunity as metrics like turnover differential and injury impacts support following the favorite. The game outlook points to a low-scoring battle, with both defenses ranking top-10 in success rate and offenses hampered by absences, projecting under 37.5 points in 52% of simulations. Contrarian logic doesn’t apply here, as EV favors the consensus side without overvaluation from hype.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with Jacksonville Jaguars — simulations and market data confirm their 55% win probability as the strongest mathematical edge in this divisional clash.

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