Howard vs Niagara

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-22 04:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-22 08:53 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Howard / Spread / +4.5 at -110 / 55% / Howard’s home defense limits opponents, covering as underdog against Niagara’s average offense early in season.
💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 142.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams play at above-average tempo with leaky defenses allowing high points in recent outings.
💰 Best Bet #3 Niagara / Moneyline / -190 / 58% / Niagara’s superior efficiency ratings and road form give edge despite public heavy action.

Howard vs Niagara on 2025-11-22

Game Times

ET: 4:00 PM
CT: 3:00 PM
MT: 2:00 PM
PT: 1:00 PM
AKT: 12:00 PM
HST: 10:00 AM

💸 Public Bets

Niagara 65% / Howard 35%

💰 Money Distribution

Niagara 55% / Howard 45%

💹 Market Alignment

Divergent

📉 Line Movement

Line moved from Niagara -5 to -4.5 despite 65% public on Niagara, indicating sharp action on Howard.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3% on Howard spread; implied probability undervalues home team’s defensive metrics and recent form against similar opponents.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Howard | 42.0% |
| Win % for Niagara | 58.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Howard | 55.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52% / Under: 48% |
| Average Total Points | 140.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12.0, 10.0] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Jordan McCabe / Over Points / 15.5 at -115 / 62% / McCabe’s high usage rate (28%) and Niagara’s reliance on his scoring against Howard’s weak perimeter defense favor the over.
Player Prop #2: Seth Pinkney / Over Rebounds / 8.5 at -110 / 58% / Pinkney averages 9.2 boards per game with Howard’s slow tempo boosting rebound opportunities against Niagara’s average frontcourt.
Player Prop #3: Elijah Hawkins / Under Assists / 5.5 at -105 / 60% / Hawkins faces Niagara’s stout guard defense limiting passing lanes, under in 4 of last 5 road games.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Niagara, but divergent money distribution and reverse line movement suggest sharp support for Howard, making a fade of the public optimal on the spread. Both teams’ defenses rank below average in efficiency, pointing to a higher-scoring affair than the total implies. Overall, Niagara holds a slight edge in win probability, but value lies in the underdog side and over.

🔮 Recommended Play

Fade the public on Howard — mathematical models and line action confirm positive EV despite popularity on the favorite.

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