NCAAB
Idaho State vs 
Montana
League: NCAAB | Game Time: 9:00 PM ET • 8:00 PM CT • 7:00 PM MT • 6:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-19 10:15 PM EST
💰 Best Bet #1 Montana Grizzlies / -5.5 / -110 / 62% / Public 55% bets/60% money on Idaho State but sim shows Montana covers at high rate amid superior implied strength
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 158.5 at -110 / 55% / Money 57% on under aligns with avg sim total of 157.5 and slight public under lean
💰 Best Bet #3 Montana Grizzlies / Moneyline / -395 / 78% / Heavy favorite with strong win probability convergence despite juice
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Idaho State Bengals | 22% |
| Win % for Montana Grizzlies | 78% |
| Spread Cover % for Montana Grizzlies | 62% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 157.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12.2, 25.8] |
🏈 Matchup: Idaho State Bengals vs Montana Grizzlies on 2026-02-20
💸 Public Bets
[Idaho State 55% / Montana 45%]
💰 Money Distribution
[Idaho State 60% / Montana 40%]
💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]
📉 Line Movement
Spread shifted from +6.5 (DraftKings) to +5.5 consensus, tracking public action on underdog
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+4.2% on Montana -5.5; sim cover exceeds implied odds breakeven amid contextual favorite strength]
Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public bets and money distribution align heavily on Idaho State +5.5 (55%/60%), indicating consensus but potential overvaluation of underdog in low-volume matchup. Simulation driven by efficiency convergence and spread implies positive EV fading public on Montana cover, with defensive metrics projecting modest scoring. Overall game outlook leans under total given under money lean and average sim points below line.
🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Montana Grizzlies — sim-backed probability overrides aligned public sentiment.
Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.
Highlights unavailable.