NCAAB

Idaho vs Northern Arizona

League: NCAAB | Game Time: 9:00 PM ET • 8:00 PM CT • 7:00 PM MT • 6:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-26 09:15 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Idaho Vandals / Spread / -10.5 at -110 / 58% / Idaho’s home strength and recent win over weak opponent align with model edge over public split favoring NAU cover

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 146.5 at -110 / 55% / Combined recent game averages project below line with money leaning under

💰 Best Bet #3 Idaho Vandals / Moneyline / -650 / 85% / Heavy public and money consensus with sim win probability convergence

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Idaho Vandals | 82.1% |
| Win % for Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 17.9% |
| Spread Cover % for Idaho Vandals | 52.4% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.2% / Under: 51.8% |
| Average Total Points | 145.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-9.8, 31.4] |

🏀 Matchup: Idaho Vandals vs Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
💸 Public Bets
[43% / 57%]
💰 Money Distribution
[38% / 62%]
💹 Market Alignment
Divergent
📉 Line Movement
Stable at -10.5 / 146.5 across books
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+2.8% on Idaho -10.5 (sim cover exceeds implied prob by 2.4 pts margin)

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Stepan Bershews (Idaho) / Over 14.5 Points / -115 / 72% / Averages 16+ PPG in recent outings, favorable matchup vs NAU weak interior defense
Player Prop #2: Quinn Denker (Idaho) / Over 4.5 Assists / -110 / 68% / Primary ball-handler with 5.2 APG last 5, NAU allows high assist totals to guards
Player Prop #3: Carson Towne (NAU) / Under 12.5 Points / -110 / 70% / Struggles on road (9.8 PPG away), Idaho holds opponents under team avg scoring

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment splits on spread with slight majority on NAU +10.5 while money tilts heavier to dog, but sim and home/road splits favor Idaho cover without strong RLM signal. Sharp resistance absent, aligning follow on ML with contrarian spread value. Overall scoring outlook moderate with unders hitting in 52% of projections based on recent defensive efficiencies.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on NAU spread / Follow public with Idaho ML — model highest probability on home spread and moneyline.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

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