NCAAB

Idaho vs Northern Arizona

League: NCAAB | Game Time: 9:00 PM ET • 8:00 PM CT • 7:00 PM MT • 6:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-26 09:15 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Idaho Vandals / -10.5 / -10.5 at -110 / 60% / Public 57% bets and 62% money on NAU +10.5 but recent home form and sim show strong cover edge despite dog action
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 146.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams recent games trend under with Idaho home defenses solid, public money 60% under
💰 Best Bet #3 Idaho Vandals / Moneyline / -650 / 82% / Heavy favorite aligns with win sim despite ML public skew

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Idaho Vandals | 82% |
| Win % for Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 18% |
| Spread Cover % for Idaho Vandals | 58% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 145 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-10, 34] |

🏀 Matchup: Idaho Vandals vs Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

💸 Public Bets
[Idaho 43% / NAU 57%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Idaho 38% / NAU 62%]

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned (public and money favor NAU +10.5)

📉 Line Movement
Stable at -10.5 across sportsbooks including BetOnline, LowVig, DraftKings

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4% on Idaho -10.5; sim cover 58% vs implied 52%, contrarian value against aligned dog action

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Yuuki Iba (Idaho) / Over Points / 14.5 at -115 / 72% / Leads Vandals scoring at 15.2 PPG current season, NAU allows 78 PPG to guards
Player Prop #2: Trent McCarthy (NAU) / Under Points / 13.5 at -110 / 70% / Averages 13.8 but Idaho home D holds opponents to 72 PPG, recent away struggles
Player Prop #3: Kaden McKenney (Idaho) / Over Rebounds / 5.5 at -112 / 68% / 6.1 RPG home, NAU weak on boards allowing 38 RPG to forwards

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public bets (57%) and money (62%) heavily favor NAU +10.5, indicating alignment but sim projections and Idaho’s home efficiency edge (recent margins +5 avg) support fading the dog. Sharp resistance implied by ML public skew on favorite without line shift. Overall game projects low-scoring under with combined recent totals ~150 but defensive matchups cap at 145 avg.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on NAU +10.5 — Idaho covers with superior home metrics and positive EV.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

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