Illinois State vs Evansville

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-01 03:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-01 10:55 AM EST

Illinois State vs Evansville on 2026-01-01

💰 Best Bet #1 Illinois State / Spread / -14.5 at -108 / 65% / Illinois State dominates at home with recent wins by double digits, while Evansville struggles offensively against top defenses, aligning with simulation cover probability.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 145 at -110 / 52% / Both teams show moderate scoring trends in recent games, with Illinois State’s defense holding opponents under 70 points lately, favoring a lower total despite neutral pace.

💰 Best Bet #3 Illinois State / Moneyline / -1200 / 92% / Overwhelming home advantage and form give Illinois State a clear edge, with minimal upset risk per metrics.

Game Times

ET: 3:00 PM
CT: 2:00 PM
MT: 1:00 PM
PT: 12:00 PM
AKT: 11:00 AM
HST: 9:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
Illinois State 75% / Evansville 25%

💰 Money Distribution
Illinois State 60% / Evansville 40%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at -13.5 and moved to -14.5 with balanced action, indicating sharp support for the favorite despite public lean.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4% on Illinois State spread; simulation and recent form show value against implied odds, with no major injuries shifting dynamics.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Illinois State | 92.3% |
| Win % for Evansville | 7.7% |
| Spread Cover % for Illinois State | 65.2% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.1% / Under: 51.9% |
| Average Total Points | 140.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [5.2, 25.8] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster and injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors Illinois State, but money distribution shows some divergence with sharper action on the spread and under, supported by reverse line movement. Following the public aligns with math here due to strong home metrics, avoiding a forced fade. Overall game outlook points to moderate scoring, with Illinois State’s defense capping Evansville’s output below recent averages.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Illinois State — simulation and form confirm the highest probability edge.

Highlights unavailable.