Indiana Pacers vs Cleveland Cavaliers

League: NBA | Date: 2025-12-01 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-01 06:55 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Indiana Pacers / +5.5 / -110 / 56%
Divergent action with 88% public on Cavs but 39% money on Pacers, line steady signaling sharp buy on home dog; sim cover at 52% amid balanced injuries.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 226.5 at -110 / 54%
Heavy injuries to scorers on both sides (Haliburton, Garland, Allen out) suppress pace and efficiency; sim avg total 225.4 with 51.8% under probability.

💰 Best Bet #3 Cleveland Cavaliers / Moneyline / -215 / 68%
Cavs hold edge in net rating and volume shooting despite absences; sim win prob 68% in depleted matchup.

🏀 Indiana Pacers vs Cleveland Cavaliers on 2025-12-01

Game Times
ET: 07:00 PM
CT: 06:00 PM
MT: 05:00 PM
PT: 04:00 PM
AKT: 03:00 PM
HST: 01:00 PM

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Indiana Pacers | 32.0% |
| Win % for Cleveland Cavaliers | 68.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Indiana Pacers | 52.1% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.2% / Under: 51.8% |
| Average Total Points | 225.4 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2.1, 14.3] |

💸 Public Bets
Cavs 88% / Pacers 12%

💰 Money Distribution
Cavs 61% / Pacers 39%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Line steady at Cavs -5.5 despite 88% public bets on Cavs, signaling sharp resistance on Pacers side.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4% EV on Pacers +5.5; public-money disparity and sim cover alignment create value against overhyped Cavs post-loss streak.

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster and injury verification failure amid extensive absences on both teams.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public heavily favors Cavaliers (88%) but money distribution leans Pacers (39%), creating divergence with steady line movement indicating sharp action on the home underdog. Injuries to key players like Haliburton, Garland, and Allen balance the matchup, supporting value on Pacers spread cover while sim projects modest Cavs win margin. Overall scoring outlook trends under with depleted rosters limiting offensive output.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Pacers +5.5 — highest EV from sharp-money alignment, sim probabilities, and injury-adjusted context.

Highlights unavailable.