NBA

Indiana Pacers vs Dallas Mavericks

League: NBA | Game Time: 5:00 PM ET • 4:00 PM CT • 3:00 PM MT • 2:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-22 07:09 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Dallas Mavericks / Spread / -2 at -110 / 55% / Sharp money 64% on DAL aligns with 52% sim cover rate and recent DAL road form despite injuries
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 232.5 at -110 / 65% / Injuries to key scorers (Haliburton, Irving out) drive sim avg total 227 (62% under), recent IND totals trending lower
💰 Best Bet #3 Dallas Mavericks / Moneyline / -124 / 60% / 57% sim win prob tops implied odds, consensus public/sharp action on road favorite

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Indiana Pacers | 42.9% |
| Win % for Dallas Mavericks | 57.1% |
| Spread Cover % for Dallas Mavericks (-2) | 52.3% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 38.2% / Under: 61.8% |
| Average Total Points | 226.9 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-33.1, 39.5] |

💸 Public Bets
41% Indiana / 59% Dallas

💰 Money Distribution
36% Indiana / 64% Dallas

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Stable around Dallas -2 to -2.5 across books (FanDuel -2, MyBookie -2.5)

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4% on Dallas ML (+9% Under); sim probs exceed implied odds, injuries suppress scoring

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment (59% bets) aligns with sharp money (64%) on Dallas spread/ML, supported by simulation edge and home/away splits amid heavy injuries on both sides. Follow public optimal as contrarian signals absent and EV confirms. Game projects low-scoring with depleted rosters limiting offense (avg sim 227 points).

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Dallas —

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

Highlights unavailable.