Indiana Pacers vs New Orleans Pelicans

League: NBA | Date: 2026-01-16 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-16 06:09 PM EST

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 [Indiana Pacers / Spread / -4.5 at -105 / 56% / Pacers show strong home defense in recent games, covering in 4 of last 6, with injuries impacting Pelicans’ offense more severely, aligning with reverse line movement.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 235.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams rank bottom-10 in pace this season, allowing under 110 points per game defensively, and key absences reduce scoring potential despite high line.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Indiana Pacers / Moneyline / -170 / 61% / Home advantage and superior net rating (Pacers +2.1 vs Pelicans -5.3) give clear edge in low-win matchup.]

Indiana Pacers vs New Orleans Pelicans on 2026-01-16

Game Times
ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
[68% / 32%]

💰 Money Distribution
[52% / 48%]

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Pacers -3.5, moved to -4.5 on sharp action despite 68% public on Pacers, indicating professional money on home side. Total steady at 235.5 with slight under tick.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4.2% on Pacers spread due to reverse line movement against public fade and strong home metrics; under total offers +3.8% EV from low-pace matchup and injury impacts.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Indiana Pacers | 61% |
| Win % for New Orleans Pelicans | 39% |
| Spread Cover % for Indiana Pacers (-4.5) | 56% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 228.4 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-8.2, +12.1] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: [Pascal Siakam / Over Rebounds / 7.5 at -115 / 65% / Siakam averages 8.2 rebounds in last 10 games with increased usage due to Haliburton out, facing Pelicans’ weak frontcourt defense allowing 45% offensive rebound rate.]

Player Prop #2: [Yves Missi / Over Rebounds / 6.5 at -110 / 62% / Missi has hit over in 7 of last 9, exploiting Pacers’ injury-depleted interior (Jackson/Toppin out), with Pelicans leaning on young bigs for boards amid Zion absence.]

Player Prop #3: [Aaron Nesmith / Under Points / 16.5 at -105 / 58% / Nesmith under in 8 of last 10 starts, limited role in offense with Haliburton sidelined, against Pelicans’ perimeter defense holding guards under 17 points average.]

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public heavily favors the Pacers but money is split, with divergent alignment signaling sharp support for the home spread amid reverse line movement. Following the math favors the Pacers cover over public sentiment due to injury edges and home form, while fading over on total as both offenses struggle post-injuries. Overall scoring outlook points low, with combined averages under 220 points in similar matchups this season.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Pacers spread — mathematical probability highest with +EV from sharp action and defensive metrics.

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