Indiana Pacers vs New York Knicks

League: NBA | Date: 2025-12-18 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-18 06:30 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 New York Knicks / Spread / -4.5 at -110 / 62% / Knicks riding a six-game win streak with strong offensive rating against a depleted Pacers squad missing key starters like Haliburton and Nesmith; line movement hasn’t erased the value despite public action.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 224.5 at -110 / 55% / Pacers’ offense hampered by injuries averages just 102 points recently, while Knicks defense holds opponents under 105; simulation shows slight under lean with average total at 220.4.

💰 Best Bet #3 New York Knicks / Moneyline / -190 / 66% / Knicks’ 18-7 record and superior net rating dominate a 6-20 Pacers team plagued by injuries; aligns with 65.8% win probability from simulations.

Indiana Pacers vs New York Knicks on 2025-12-18

Game Times
ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
[New York Knicks 78% / Indiana Pacers 22%]

💰 Money Distribution
[New York Knicks 95% / Indiana Pacers 5%]

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Opened at Knicks -6.5, moved to -4.5 despite 78% public bets on Knicks spread and heavy money on Knicks ML, indicating potential sharp action on Pacers.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+2.5% EV on Knicks spread; public overreaction to Pacers injuries creates value, supported by Knicks’ recent form and simulation win probability, outweighing RLM signals.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Indiana Pacers | 34.2% |
| Win % for New York Knicks | 65.8% |
| Spread Cover % for Indiana Pacers | 46.1% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.3% / Under: 51.7% |
| Average Total Points | 220.4 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-6.8, 16.2] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Jalen Brunson / Over Points / 28.5 at -110 / 70% / Brunson’s 32.5 PPG on 6-game streak with high usage (30%) against Pacers’ weakened backcourt defense allowing 28+ to primary guards.
Player Prop #2: Karl-Anthony Towns / Over Rebounds / 10.5 at -115 / 68% / Towns averages 12.2 rebounds lately, exploiting Pacers’ frontcourt injuries and poor defensive rebounding rate (48%).
Player Prop #3: Pascal Siakam / Over Points / 22.5 at -110 / 65% / Increased role without Haliburton boosts Siakam’s 25 PPG potential vs. Knicks’ average power forward defense.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors the Knicks, aligning with sharp money percentages but contradicted by reverse line movement toward the Pacers, suggesting some professional resistance; however, mathematical edges and simulations support following the public on Knicks due to superior form and Pacers’ injury impacts. Overall game scoring outlook points to a lower total, as Pacers’ depleted offense struggles against Knicks’ top-10 defensive rating, favoring the under.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with New York Knicks — simulations and contextual metrics confirm the highest probability of success despite line movement.

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