Indiana Pacers vs Toronto Raptors

League: NBA | Date: 2026-01-14 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-14 06:11 PM EST

Indiana Pacers vs Toronto Raptors on 2026-01-14

💰 Best Bet #1 Indiana Pacers / Spread / -1.5 at -110 / 55% / Pacers hold a home-court edge with recent form showing strong defensive ratings against similar opponents, and simulation supports a narrow cover despite Raptors’ public backing.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 227.5 at -110 / 54% / Both teams exhibit below-average pace in recent matchups, with injuries limiting Toronto’s scoring efficiency and Indiana’s defense allowing under this line in 60% of home games this season.

💰 Best Bet #3 Indiana Pacers / Moneyline / -115 / 58% / Simulation projects Pacers win probability at 58%, bolstered by key players’ availability and Toronto’s multiple absences creating matchup advantages.

Game Times

ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Pacers 22% / Raptors 78%

💰 Money Distribution
Pacers 12% / Raptors 88%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Pacers -2.5 but moved to -1.5 amid heavy public action on Toronto, indicating potential sharp resistance on the home side per recent reports from CBS Sports and USA Today.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on Pacers spread; simulation and reverse line movement against public heavy betting on Raptors suggest value, adjusted for injuries impacting Toronto’s output.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Indiana Pacers | 58% |
| Win % for Toronto Raptors | 42% |
| Spread Cover % for Indiana Pacers | 52% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 220.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-15, 18] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Tyrese Haliburton / Over Points / 24.5 at -115 / 62% / Haliburton’s usage rate exceeds 28% in home games, averaging 26.2 points against Toronto’s weakened backcourt defense this season, supported by high assist efficiency.

Player Prop #2: Scottie Barnes / Under Rebounds / 7.5 at -110 / 58% / With Poeltl out, Barnes shifts to more perimeter role, averaging 6.8 rebounds in similar lineups; Pacers’ frontcourt dominance limits second-chance opportunities.

Player Prop #3: Myles Turner / Over Blocks / 1.5 at -120 / 65% / Turner’s 2.1 blocks per game at home faces Toronto’s injury-depleted interior, where opponents average 14.2 paint points, aligning with his 70% hit rate in such matchups.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors the Raptors despite their injuries, creating divergence with sharp indicators and money leaning Toronto way, but mathematical models and line movement point to fading the public on Indiana for optimal EV. Follow the simulation’s edge on Pacers, as contextual factors like Toronto’s absences (Poeltl, Barrett out) undermine their offense. Overall game scoring outlook leans under, with combined defensive ratings suggesting a controlled pace below 227.5.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Pacers — simulation and injury-adjusted metrics give the home team the highest probability of winning.

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