Indiana State vs Evansville

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-10 01:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-10 11:59 AM EST

Indiana State vs Evansville on 2026-01-10

💰 Best Bet #1 [Indiana State / Spread / -7.5 at -110 / 58% / Indiana State dominates with superior efficiency and home advantage, covering in simulations against Evansville’s poor road form.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 145.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams show defensive trends in recent MVC games, with pace and rebounding favoring a lower-scoring affair below the line.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Indiana State / Moneyline / -350 / 75% / Strong win probability backed by recent form and Evansville’s eight-game skid, offering value despite juice.]

Game Times
ET: 1:00 PM
CT: 12:00 PM
MT: 11:00 AM
PT: 10:00 AM
AKT: 9:00 AM
HST: 8:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
[70% / 30%]

💰 Money Distribution
[60% / 40%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at -7 and held steady at -7.5 with balanced action, no significant sharp movement noted.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3% on Indiana State spread; simulations and form metrics show positive value against implied odds, with no contrarian signals.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Indiana State | 75.0% |
| Win % for Evansville | 25.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Indiana State | 58.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 146.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2.5, 17.3] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: [Robbie Avila / Over Points / 18.5 at -110 / 70% / Avila’s 22.5 PPG average and high usage rate against Evansville’s weak interior defense support exceeding the line in home matchups.]

Player Prop #2: [Isaiah Swope / Over Assists / 4.5 at -110 / 65% / Swope’s playmaking in transition thrives vs. Evansville’s turnover-prone guards, with recent games showing 5+ assists at home.]

Player Prop #3: [Chuck Bailey / Under Rebounds / 7.5 at -110 / 68% / Bailey faces Indiana State’s strong rebounding frontcourt, limiting his opportunities based on road splits and defensive metrics.]

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors Indiana State, aligning with money distribution and sharp indicators, making a follow strategy optimal without need for fading. Evansville’s losing streak and defensive lapses reinforce the favorite’s edge. Overall scoring outlook points to a controlled game under the total, driven by Indiana State’s efficient half-court offense clashing with Evansville’s low-possession style.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Indiana State] — simulations confirm the highest probability of success on the favorite.

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