Indiana vs Louisville

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-12-06 02:15 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-06 10:41 AM EST

Indiana vs Louisville on 2025-12-06

💰 Best Bet #1 [Louisville / Spread / -4.5 at -110 / 58% / Louisville’s superior adjusted efficiency (top-25 KenPom) and rebounding edge against Indiana’s recent road struggles post-loss to Minnesota support covering on neutral court.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 161.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams average under 80 points allowed in last five games combined, with defensive rebounding limiting second-chance opportunities in a controlled-pace matchup.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Louisville / Moneyline / -185 / 62% / Louisville’s 7-1 record and bounce-back motivation after Arkansas loss outweigh Indiana’s similar skid, with strong 3-point shooting regression expected.]

Game Times
ET: 2:15 PM
CT: 1:15 PM
MT: 12:15 PM
PT: 11:15 AM
AKT: 10:15 AM
HST: 8:15 AM

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Indiana | 35.0% |
| Win % for Louisville | 62.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Indiana | 42.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 160.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12.0, 20.0] |

💸 Public Bets
[Louisville 68% / Indiana 32%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Louisville 72% / Indiana 28%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Louisville -3.5 and moved to -4.5 with balanced action, indicating stability and no major sharp resistance as of game day morning.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.2% on Louisville spread / +1.8% on under total] — EV derived from convergence of KenPom efficiencies, recent form (Louisville 7-1, Indiana 7-1 but loss to Minnesota), and neutral-site adjustments, where public alignment does not erode value.

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors Louisville, aligning with money distribution and stable line movement, suggesting no sharp contrarian action to fade. Mathematical edges support following this consensus, as Louisville’s offensive efficiency and Indiana’s defensive vulnerabilities in transition create value on the favorite without overvaluation. Overall game scoring outlook leans under, with both squads emphasizing half-court defense and limiting turnovers, projecting a gritty, sub-162 total on neutral ground.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Louisville / No clear edge] — whichever has the best mathematical probability of winning.

Highlights unavailable.