Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans

League: NFL | Date: 2025-11-30 01:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-30 09:46 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Indianapolis Colts / Spread / -4.5 at -110 / 58% / Colts home dominance with line movement toward them despite potential public lean to Texans; sim shows 56.1% cover rate aligned with sharp action on Under grind.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 44.5 at -110 / 60% / Both defenses stout in recent games, Stroud rusty post-concussion, avg sim total 42.8 below line; recent trends favor controlled low-scoring affair.
💰 Best Bet #3 Indianapolis Colts / Moneyline / -192 / 65% / 64.2% win probability from sim, strong EPA metrics at home vs Texans’ road struggles.

🏈 Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans on 2025-11-30

Game Times
ET: 1:00 PM
CT: 12:00 PM
MT: 11:00 AM
PT: 10:00 AM
AKT: 9:00 AM
HST: 8:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
Colts 42% / Texans 58%

💰 Money Distribution
Colts 68% / Texans 32%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Opened Colts -1.5, sharpened to -4.5 amid sharp money on home side despite public fade potential.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4.2% EV on Colts spread via RLM and sim convergence; Under holds +3.8% edge on defensive matchups.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Indianapolis Colts | 64.2% |
| Win % for Houston Texans | 35.8% |
| Spread Cover % for Indianapolis Colts (-4.5) | 56.1% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 41.3% / Under: 58.7% |
| Average Total Points | 42.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2.1, +8.4] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Jonathan Taylor / Over Rushing Yards / 72.5 at -115 / 72% / Taylor averages 85 yds recent home games vs Texans D allowing 4.8 ypc; Colts run-heavy with Jones at QB boosts volume.
Player Prop #2: Michael Pittman Jr. / Over Receiving Yards / 65.5 at -110 / 68% / Pittman 75% usage rate, Texans secondary vulnerable post bye (avg 180 pass yds allowed); sim favors 70+ yds.
Player Prop #3: C.J. Stroud / Under Passing Yards / 245.5 at -112 / 65% / Stroud rusty post-concussion (79 yds last), Colts pass rush 36% pressure; recent Texans road avg under 230.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public leans Texans amid divisional hype and Stroud return, but divergent money % and RLM to Colts signal sharp resistance—optimal to fade public here. Math favors Colts cover with home EPA edge. Game projects low-scoring with both units top-12 in defensive success rate, Under primed.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Texans — Colts hold superior EV across sim and market signals.

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