Iowa State Cyclones vs Fairleigh Dickinson Knights

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-03 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-03 07:05 PM EST

Iowa State Cyclones vs Fairleigh Dickinson Knights on 2025-11-03

Game Times

ET: 8:00 PM
CT: 7:00 PM
MT: 6:00 PM
PT: 5:00 PM
AKT: 4:00 PM
HST: 2:00 PM

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Iowa State Cyclones | 99.1% |
| Win % for Fairleigh Dickinson Knights | 0.9% |
| Spread Cover % for Iowa State Cyclones (-35.5) | 33.2% |
| Over/Under Probability (148.5) | Over: 42.2% / Under: 57.8% |
| Average Total Points | 146.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [5.2, 53.7] |

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets
💰 Best Bet #1 [Fairleigh Dickinson Knights / Spread / +37.5 at -110 / 67% / Simulation indicates Iowa State wins convincingly but covers the large spread only 33% of the time, creating value on the underdog side despite heavy favoritism; adjusted efficiency metrics and pace suggest a margin closer to 30-35 points on average.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 147.5 at -112 / 58% / Both teams’ defensive rebounding and turnover rates point to a controlled pace, with Iowa State’s elite defense limiting possessions; recent exhibition trends and KenPom projections align with the simulated average of 146 points, favoring under in a lopsided matchup.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Iowa State Cyclones / Moneyline / -100000 / 99% / Overwhelming win probability from efficiency ratings, home-court advantage at Hilton Coliseum, and Fairleigh Dickinson’s weaker schedule make Iowa State a near-certainty straight up.]

💸 Public Bets
[Iowa State 85% / Fairleigh Dickinson 15%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Iowa State 92% / Fairleigh Dickinson 8%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
The spread opened at -35 and has ticked up to -37.5 across major books like DraftKings and BetMGM, reflecting some sharp money on Iowa State but stable overall with no significant reverse movement; total steady at 147.5-148.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+4.2% on Fairleigh Dickinson +37.5 / Low cover rate in simulations combined with public overreaction to Iowa State’s ranking creates a positive edge; EV on under total at +3.1% due to defensive metrics and pace control outweighing offensive outputs.]

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Cade Kelderman (Iowa State) / Over Points / 12.5 at -115 / 72% / Kelderman’s usage rate in exhibitions (25%) and efficiency against mid-majors project him clearing this line easily in a high-volume scoring opportunity against Fairleigh Dickinson’s weaker perimeter defense.
Player Prop #2: Sean Moundras (Fairleigh Dickinson) / Under Points / 8.5 at -110 / 68% / Moundras faces Iowa State’s top-ranked adjusted defensive efficiency, limiting guard scoring; his recent form shows under 70% hit rate in similar matchups, supported by low shot volume projections.
Player Prop #3: Joshua Jefferson (Iowa State) / Over Rebounds / 7.5 at -112 / 75% / Jefferson’s rebounding percentage (18%) dominates against Fairleigh Dickinson’s poor offensive rebounding rate; simulation variance favors overs in blowouts where Iowa State controls the glass.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Iowa State across spreads and moneylines, aligning with money distribution and indicating consensus without sharp resistance, but the math supports fading the public on the spread due to the simulation’s low cover probability for such a large line. Sharp action appears limited in this low-volume opener, with no major injuries reported for either side—Iowa State at full strength post-exhibitions, Fairleigh Dickinson dealing with minor depth issues. Overall game scoring outlook leans low, as Iowa State’s havoc rate and Fairleigh Dickinson’s deliberate tempo suggest a total under the line, prioritizing defense in a mismatch.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Fade the public on Iowa State spread] — the mathematical probability favors Fairleigh Dickinson covering the inflated line in 67% of simulated outcomes.

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