NCAAB
Jacksonville Dolphins vs 
Austin Peay
League: NCAAB | Game Time: 7:00 PM ET • 6:00 PM CT • 5:00 PM MT • 4:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-21 11:32 AM EST
💰 Best Bet #1 Austin Peay / -7.5 / -110 / 58% / Jacksonville poor recent home form (loss by 16), public split with money leaning dog but line holds firm indicating value on favorite cover
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / 140.5 / -110 / 55% / Recent Jacksonville games avg 162 total but home loss low-scoring (158), public/money on under (56%/60%), defensive matchup favors lower total
💰 Best Bet #3 Austin Peay / -325 / 75% / Heavy favorite backed by 80% public bets/85% money, aligns with recent Jacksonville struggles
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Jacksonville Dolphins | 25% |
| Win % for Austin Peay Governors | 75% |
| Spread Cover % for Jacksonville Dolphins (+7.5) | 48% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 141 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-20, 6] |
🏀 Matchup: Jacksonville Dolphins vs Austin Peay Governors
💸 Public Bets
Jacksonville 52% / Austin Peay 48%
💰 Money Distribution
Jacksonville 57% / Austin Peay 43%
💹 Market Alignment
Divergent
📉 Line Movement
N/A
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.5% on Austin Peay -7.5; model projects 56% cover probability vs -110 implied 52.4%
Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public betting slightly favors the Jacksonville underdog on spread while money leans heavier that way (57%), creating divergence that suggests sharp action on the dog but model metrics and recent home loss by 16 points support fading for Austin Peay cover. ML heavily aligned with public/sharp on favorite. Game projects moderate scoring (avg 141) with slight under edge from public lean and Jacksonville home defensive showing.
🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Jacksonville — Austin Peay -7.5 has strongest EV.
Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.
Highlights unavailable.