NCAAB
Jacksonville Dolphins vs 
Stetson
League: NCAAB | Game Time: 7:00 PM ET • 6:00 PM CT • 5:00 PM MT • 4:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-26 08:27 AM EST
💰 Best Bet #1 Jacksonville Dolphins -6.5 at -108 / 62% Confidence
Simulation projects Jacksonville covering in 58% of outcomes with average margin of 8 points; public bets even but money slightly on Stetson indicates potential sharp resistance, home form supports edge.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under 139.5 at -110 / 58% Confidence
Recent games show Jax home unders in low-scoring affairs (avg total ~140 but defensive matchups favor low); public leans under with 55% bets/59% money alignment.
💰 Best Bet #3 Jacksonville Dolphins Moneyline -265 / 75% Confidence
Strong home favorite with 72% simulated win probability; heavy public on ML (75%) aligns with model and recent form.
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Jacksonville Dolphins | 72% |
| Win % for Stetson Hatters | 27% |
| Spread Cover % for Jacksonville Dolphins | 58% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 55% / Under: 45% |
| Average Total Points | 144 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-4, 22] |
🏀 Matchup: Jacksonville Dolphins vs Stetson Hatters on 2026-02-27
💸 Public Bets
[49% / 51%]
💰 Money Distribution
[44% / 56%]
💹 Market Alignment
Divergent
📉 Line Movement
Stable from -6 to -6.5 across books with no significant shift despite slight public lean to underdog
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4.2% on Jacksonville spread (model 58% vs implied 52%; RLM absent but money disparity on underdog with sim support)
Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Bryce Workman (Jacksonville Dolphins) Over 16.5 Points at -110 / 72% Confidence
Workman averages 18 PPG in recent outings with high usage (25%) vs Stetson’s weak perimeter D allowing 75 PPG; matchup favors volume scoring.
Player Prop #2: Jada Byers (Jacksonville Dolphins) Over 5.5 Rebounds at -112 / 68% Confidence
Byers grabs 6.8 RPG home, exploiting Stetson’s poor defensive rebounding (42% rate); recent form 7+ in 3/4 games.
Player Prop #3: D.J. Jackson (Stetson Hatters) Under 14.5 Points at -108 / 70% Confidence
Jackson held under in 4/5 road games (avg 12 vs top-200), Jax D limits guards to 68 PPG efficiency edge.
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment split on spread with money favoring Stetson +6.5, but simulation and home metrics converge on Jacksonville cover without heavy public bias (>65% threshold not met). Sharp money divergence suggests value fading slight underdog lean, while totals align under public with Jax home defensive trends. Overall low-scoring outlook as both teams average sub-140 totals recently.
🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Stetson +6.5 — Jacksonville -6.5 holds strongest mathematical probability.
Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.
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