NCAAB

Jacksonville Dolphins vs Stetson

League: NCAAB | Game Time: 7:00 PM ET • 6:00 PM CT • 5:00 PM MT • 4:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-26 08:27 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Jacksonville Dolphins / Spread / -6.5 at -108 / 57% / Simulation cover rate exceeds implied probability amid home advantage and Stetson’s recent blowout road losses.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 139.5 at -110 / 60% / Recent games show combined averages below line with Jacksonville’s home contests particularly low-scoring (avg ~140 total).
💰 Best Bet #3 Jacksonville Dolphins / Moneyline / -265 / 73% / Model win probability aligns with sharp consensus despite heavy public ML action.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Jacksonville Dolphins | 73% |
| Win % for Stetson Hatters | 27% |
| Spread Cover % for Jacksonville Dolphins | 57% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 139 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-16, 30] |

💸 Public Bets
Jacksonville Dolphins 49% / Stetson Hatters 51%

💰 Money Distribution
Jacksonville Dolphins 44% / Stetson Hatters 56%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Stable around -6 to -6.5 across books with no significant RLM

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4.2% on Jacksonville spread (57% model cover vs 52.4% implied); under offers +3.8% edge from defensive trends

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Jordan Gauthier / Over 14.5 Points / -110 / 72% / Jax leading scorer averages 16.2 PPG recently, exploits Stetson weak interior defense allowing high paint points
Player Prop #2: Caleb Daniels / Over 5.5 Rebounds / -115 / 68% / Strong rebounding rate (8.1 RPG last 5), Stetson poor opp reb % supports over
Player Prop #3: Chase Hunter / Under 11.5 Points / -110 / 70% / Stetson guard struggling (9.4 PPG road), Jax perimeter D limits guards to under 10 avg

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public bets lean slightly to Stetson spread but money disparity signals potential sharp action on the dog; however, simulation and Jacksonville’s superior recent form (avg +5.3 margin) favor fading the public for home side value. Game projects low-scoring with strong defensive metrics from both but Jax edges offense. Overall scoring outlook leans under given recent home/road trends.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Stetson +6.5 —

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

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