Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills

League: NFL | Date: 2026-01-11 01:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-08 06:05 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Jaguars / Spread / +1.5 at -110 / 65% / Jaguars’ eight-game win streak and home-field edge provide value against a narrow Bills favorite line, with simulation showing strong cover probability amid Bills’ road challenges.
💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 52.5 at -110 / 60% / Both teams feature explosive offenses with Jaguars averaging 28 points in recent wins and Bills’ high-efficiency passing, pushing totals over in 55% of simulations despite defensive injuries.
💰 Best Bet #3 Jaguars / Moneyline / -104 / 55% / Slight upset potential at home for Jacksonville, backed by 52% win probability in Monte Carlo runs and contrarian value against public favoritism toward Buffalo.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills on 2026-01-11

Game Times

ET: 01:00 PM
CT: 12:00 PM
MT: 11:00 AM
PT: 10:00 AM
AKT: 09:00 AM
HST: 08:00 AM

💸 Public Bets

Bills 58% / Jaguars 42%

💰 Money Distribution

Bills 62% / Jaguars 38%

💹 Market Alignment

Divergent

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at Bills -1 and has held steady at -1.5 despite 58% public on Buffalo, indicating potential sharp resistance on the Jaguars side with minimal total adjustment from 51.5 to 52.5.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+4% on Jaguars +1.5, driven by reverse line stability against public lean, Jaguars’ recent form (8-0 streak covering every spread), and simulation edges outweighing Bills’ slight talent advantage.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Jacksonville Jaguars | 52% |
| Win % for Buffalo Bills | 48% |
| Spread Cover % for Jacksonville Jaguars +1.5 | 58% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 55% / Under: 45% |
| Average Total Points | 52.3 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-10, 12] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster and injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors the Bills as road favorites, but divergent money distribution and stable lines suggest sharp action on Jacksonville, creating fade value supported by the Jaguars’ hot streak and home advantage. Mathematical edges align with following contrarian logic here, as Bills’ injury concerns (e.g., potential absences in secondary) weaken their defense against Trevor Lawrence. Overall game scoring outlook points to a high-output affair, with both teams’ offenses ranking top-10 in EPA per play this season, favoring the over amid neutral weather conditions.

🔮 Recommended Play

Fade the public on Bills — Jaguars +1.5 offers the best mathematical probability of winning, leveraging home edge and simulation-backed cover rate.

Highlights unavailable.