Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts

League: NFL | Date: 2025-12-07 01:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-07 08:44 AM EST

🏈 Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts on 2025-12-07

Game Times

ET: 1:00 PM
CT: 12:00 PM
MT: 11:00 AM
PT: 10:00 AM
AKT: 9:00 AM
HST: 7:00 AM

💰 Best Bet #1 [Jacksonville Jaguars / Spread / +1.5 at -110 / 52% / Jaguars show value as underdogs with home-field edge and Colts’ injury concerns at key positions like QB and RB, aligning with simulation cover probability slightly above 50% despite public lean toward Indianapolis.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 47.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams’ defenses rank top-15 in points allowed per game this season, with recent trends showing unders in 6 of Jaguars’ last 8 home games and Colts’ road matchups, supporting a projected average of 45.2 points.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Indianapolis Colts / Moneyline / -120 / 54% / Colts hold a slight edge in win probability from EPA metrics and turnover margin, bolstered by better red-zone efficiency against a Jaguars secondary vulnerable to deep passes.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Jacksonville Jaguars | 46% |
| Win % for Indianapolis Colts | 54% |
| Spread Cover % for Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5) | 48% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 46% / Under: 54% |
| Average Total Points | 45.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin (Jags – Colts) | [-10.5, 8.2] |

💸 Public Bets
[42% / 58%]

💰 Money Distribution
[48% / 52%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Colts -1 and has held steady at -1.5 with minimal movement, despite moderate public action on Indianapolis; no significant RLM observed, indicating balanced sharp interest.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.2% on Jaguars spread and under total] — EV derived from simulation probabilities exceeding implied odds, with contextual adjustments for Colts’ injury-impacted offense reducing scoring potential against Jaguars’ home defense.

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Trevor Lawrence / Over 245.5 Passing Yards / -110 / 58% / Lawrence averages 268 yards per game at home this season with a 68% completion rate; Colts’ secondary ranks 22nd in passer rating allowed, and without key CB depth due to injuries, expect elevated volume in a pass-friendly matchup.
Player Prop #2: Travis Etienne Jr. / Over 68.5 Rushing Yards / -115 / 56% / Etienne has hit this mark in 7 of 10 games, averaging 4.8 YPC; Colts’ run defense allows 4.2 YPC on the road and is weakened by front-seven injuries, favoring ground control for Jacksonville’s offense.
Player Prop #3: Michael Pittman Jr. / Over 5.5 Receptions / -105 / 60% / Pittman leads Colts with 72 receptions this season at a 65% catch rate; Jaguars’ zone coverage yields 6.2 receptions per game to top WRs, and his high target share (28%) persists regardless of QB mobility limitations.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment leans toward the Colts with aligned money distribution, but mathematical edges favor the under and Jaguars spread due to injury impacts on Indianapolis’ key contributors like RB Jonathan Taylor (ankle, questionable) and secondary depth, creating value in fading the favorite slightly. Sharp action appears balanced without strong RLM, supporting a follow on consensus where EV confirms. Overall game scoring outlook points low, as both offenses average under 22 points against top-12 defenses this season, with weather-neutral conditions in Jacksonville reinforcing the under.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Indianapolis Colts] — 54% win probability and positive EV on moneyline outweigh contrarian signals in this evenly matched divisional clash.

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