Kansas vs Iowa State

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-13 09:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-13 11:24 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Kansas / +4 at -110 / 56% / Kansas benefits from home-court advantage in Lawrence, where Iowa State has struggled in recent Big 12 road games; simulation indicates a 56% cover rate despite Iowa State’s strong record.
💰 Best Bet #2 Over / 148.5 at -110 / 51% / Both teams rank top-20 in adjusted offensive efficiency this season, with Kansas allowing high pace at home; line movement upward reflects expectations for a shootout averaging 147+ points.
💰 Best Bet #3 Iowa State / Moneyline at -180 / 62% / Iowa State’s undefeated streak and wins over top opponents give them the edge, though value is limited on the favorite.

Iowa State vs Kansas on 2026-01-13

Game Times

ET: 9:00 PM
CT: 8:00 PM
MT: 7:00 PM
PT: 6:00 PM
AKT: 5:00 PM
HST: 3:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

Iowa State 65% / Kansas 35%

💰 Money Distribution

Iowa State 45% / Kansas 55%

💹 Market Alignment

Divergent

📉 Line Movement

Spread steady at Iowa State -4; total rose from 143.5 to 148.5 amid sharp action on higher scoring potential.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3% on Kansas +4, driven by reverse line movement signals and home underdog value in simulations.

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Kansas | 38% |
| Win % for Iowa State | 62% |
| Spread Cover % for Kansas +4 | 56% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 51% / Under: 49% |
| Average Total Points | 147.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-8.5, 12.3] |

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Iowa State due to their perfect record, but money distribution leans toward Kansas, indicating sharp resistance to the favorite. This divergence, combined with no major injuries and Kansas’s home efficiency, supports fading the public on the spread. The game outlook points to moderate scoring, with both teams’ defenses allowing efficient shots but pace pushing toward the over.

🔮 Recommended Play

Fade the public on Kansas — simulation and market signals highlight value in the home underdog covering.

Highlights unavailable.