NCAAB

Lafayette vs Holy Cross

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-17 01:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-17 11:54 AM EST

Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 [Lafayette / Spread / +4.5 at -110 / 52% / Simulation indicates a 52% cover probability for the underdog, supported by recent trends where Lafayette has covered in similar matchups despite being on the road]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 138.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams show defensive efficiencies that limit possessions, with average total points aligning just below the line based on current season metrics]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Holy Cross / Moneyline / -150 / 60% / Higher win probability from simulation, bolstered by home-court advantage and Lafayette’s road struggles in the 2026 season]

🏀 Matchup: Lafayette vs Holy Cross on 2026-01-17

Game Times

• ET: 1:00 PM
• CT: 12:00 PM
• MT: 11:00 AM
• PT: 10:00 AM
• AKT: 9:00 AM
• HST: 7:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
[45% Lafayette / 55% Holy Cross]

💰 Money Distribution
[40% Lafayette / 60% Holy Cross]

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Holy Cross -5 but has steadied at -4.5 with minimal movement, indicating balanced action despite public lean toward the favorite.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+2.1% on Lafayette spread / Slight value from simulation cover rate exceeding implied odds probability, adjusted for home-field factors in current season data]

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Lafayette | 40% |
| Win % for Holy Cross | 60% |
| Spread Cover % for Lafayette (+4.5) | 52% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 138 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-8, 12] |

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment slightly favors Holy Cross, but money distribution shows sharper action on the underdog Lafayette, creating a divergent market that supports fading the public on the spread. Overall, the game projects as moderately low-scoring, with both teams’ defensive rebounding and turnover rates in the current 2026 season pointing to an under-leaning total. No major injuries reported from available data, allowing full lineups to influence a close contest.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Fade the public on Lafayette / Mathematical edge favors the underdog spread based on simulation and line stability]

Highlights unavailable.