Lafayette vs Monmouth

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-30 02:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-30 11:03 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Monmouth / Spread / -5.5 at -110 / 57% confidence
Monmouth shows edge in recent form, covering 57.2% in simulations against Lafayette’s struggles, supported by adjusted efficiencies and home/away splits from current season data.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 142.5 at -110 / 53% confidence
Average simulated total of 141.8 points aligns with under hit rate of 53.2%, factoring defensive rebounding rates and slower tempo for both teams in 2025 season games.

💰 Best Bet #3 Monmouth / Moneyline / -250 / 68% confidence
Monmouth’s 67.6% win probability from 10,000 simulations exceeds implied odds, backed by superior O/D efficiency and Lafayette’s 0-2 recent tournament losses.

Lafayette vs Monmouth on 2025-11-30

Game Times
ET: 2:30 PM
CT: 1:30 PM
MT: 12:30 PM
PT: 11:30 AM
AKT: 10:30 AM
HST: 8:30 AM

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Lafayette | 32.4% |
| Win % for Monmouth | 67.6% |
| Spread Cover % for Monmouth (-5.5) | 57.2% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 46.8% / Under: 53.2% |
| Average Total Points | 141.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin (Monmouth) | [-2.1, 13.4] |

💸 Public Bets
Lafayette 42% / Monmouth 58%

💰 Money Distribution
Lafayette 38% / Monmouth 62%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Stable at -5.5 to -6; opened Monmouth -5, minor shift toward favorite despite balanced public action per OddsShark and Sportsbettingdime trends.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% EV on Monmouth spread; simulation cover rate and money % convergence outweigh public lean without RLM signals.

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public and money percentages align on Monmouth as favorite, matching simulation outcomes and current season metrics like Monmouth’s edge in effective FG% and turnover defense. No significant injuries reported from OddsShark team pages, supporting follow over fade. Game projects low-scoring with both teams allowing under 72 PPG recently, favoring under total.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Monmouth — highest probability from market consensus, simulations, and 2025 form without contrarian signals.

Highlights unavailable.