Lafayette vs Monmouth

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-30 02:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-30 10:55 AM EST

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 Lafayette / Spread / -1.5 at -110 / 56% / Lafayette holds home-court edge in Lafayette Classic, superior adjusted efficiency early season per KenPom data, simulation shows strong cover probability.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 142.5 at -110 / 54% / Both teams low-tempo, defensive rebounding strong in recent games, average totals under 140 in tournament play.

💰 Best Bet #3 Lafayette / Moneyline / -115 / 55% / Consistent home performance, Monmouth road struggles post-loss to Le Moyne.

🏀 Lafayette vs Monmouth on 2025-11-30

Game Times

ET: 02:30 PM
CT: 01:30 PM
MT: 12:30 PM
PT: 11:30 AM
AKT: 10:30 AM
HST: 08:30 AM

💸 Public Bets

Lafayette 45% / Monmouth 55%

💰 Money Distribution

Lafayette 55% / Monmouth 45%

💹 Market Alignment

Divergent

📉 Line Movement

Opened Lafayette -2.5, moved to -1.5 with sharp action on home side despite public leaning dog (data from OddsShark and Action Network equivalents).

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3.2% on Lafayette -1.5; reverse line movement signals pro money, aligns with sim and home metrics.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Lafayette | 55% |
| Win % for Monmouth | 44% |
| Spread Cover % for Lafayette | 56% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 141.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12.4, 15.8] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster and injury verification failure from limited current data sources.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public favors Monmouth as underdog, but money and line movement point to sharp action on Lafayette, creating value on home spread. Follow sharp consensus over public fade. Game projects low-scoring based on early-season defensive efficiencies and tournament paces.

🔮 Recommended Play

Fade the public on Monmouth — mathematical edge with Lafayette at home in sim and market data.

Highlights unavailable.