NFL

Las Vegas Raiders vs Jacksonville Jaguars

League: NFL | Date: 2025-11-02 04:05 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-02 11:18 AM EST

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 [Jacksonville Jaguars / Spread / -2.5 at -110 / 55% / Jaguars defense ranks top-10 in EPA per play, exploiting Raiders’ 31st-ranked scoring offense and poor red-zone efficiency]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 43.5 at -105 / 50% / Both teams average under 21 points scored recently, with Jaguars allowing low yards per play and Raiders facing indoor conditions limiting explosive plays]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Jacksonville Jaguars / Moneyline / -140 / 60% / Simulation shows clear edge in win probability, backed by superior success rate and turnover margin against Raiders’ struggling QB metrics]

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Jacksonville Jaguars | 60.12% |
| Win % for Las Vegas Raiders | 38.45% |
| Tie % | 1.43% |
| Spread Cover % for Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) | 55.23% |
| Spread Cover % for Las Vegas Raiders (+2.5) | 43.67% |
| Over Probability (43.5) | 49.78% |
| Under Probability (43.5) | 50.22% |
| Average Total Points | 44.00 |
| Average Margin (Jaguars – Raiders) | 2.50 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-19.0, 26.0] |

🏈 Matchup: Jacksonville Jaguars vs Las Vegas Raiders on 2025-11-02

Game Times
ET: 4:05 PM
CT: 3:05 PM
MT: 2:05 PM
PT: 1:05 PM
AKT: 12:05 PM
HST: 10:05 AM

💸 Public Bets
[Jaguars 68% / Raiders 32%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Jaguars 58% / Raiders 42%]

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Opened at Jaguars -1.5 across major books; moved to -2.5 on DraftKings and FanDuel despite moderate public backing, suggesting some sharp action on the favorite amid high handle on the spread. Total steady at 43.5-44 with slight lean under.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% EV on Jaguars -2.5, driven by implied probability (52.4% at -110) versus simulated cover rate (55.23%); contextual factors like Raiders’ 29th-ranked 3rd-down defense amplify the edge without overreliance on RLM.

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Trevor Lawrence / Over Passing Yards / 245.5 / -115 / 62% / Lawrence averages 268 yards post-bye with 68% completion rate; Raiders secondary allows 7.2 yards per attempt, top-5 in passes defended but vulnerable to pocket time against Jaguars’ run setup
Player Prop #2: Brock Bowers / Under Receiving Yards / 52.5 / -110 / 58% / Bowers held under 50 in 4 of last 6; Jaguars rank 8th in TE coverage per PFF, limiting short-area targets while forcing longer routes against Geno Smith’s 62% completion under pressure
Player Prop #3: Travis Etienne / Over Rushing Yards / 68.5 / -105 / 60% / Etienne posts 75+ yards in 70% of road games; Raiders rush defense 25th in yards per carry allowed (4.8), compounded by recent fatigue and poor gap integrity on early downs

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors the Jaguars as the perceived stronger team post-bye, aligning with sharp money indicators from line movement toward Jacksonville despite divergent percentages. Following the public here proves optimal, as metrics confirm no overvaluation—Raiders’ offensive EPA (-0.12 per play) and turnover margin lag significantly. Game scoring outlook leans low, with both defenses excelling in havoc rate and the matchup indoors favoring controlled, under-paced play over shootouts.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public on Jaguars — simulation and EV convergence support the spread as the highest-probability outcome against a Raiders unit struggling in success rate and red-zone trips.

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