NCAAB

Le Moyne vs Fairleigh Dickinson

League: NCAAB | Game Time: 7:00 PM ET • 6:00 PM CT • 5:00 PM MT • 4:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-26 08:22 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Le Moyne Dolphins / -4.5 / -110 / 58% / Simulation shows 51% cover rate exceeding breakeven, backed by public (52%) and money (57%) alignment on home favorite.
💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 139.5 at -110 / 62% / Recent games average 155+ points for both teams, simulation projects 145 average with 61% over probability despite slight public under lean.
💰 Best Bet #3 Le Moyne Dolphins / Moneyline / -220 / 60% / Home win probability at 60% in sim, supported by market consensus and recent form edge.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Le Moyne Dolphins | 59.6% |
| Win % for Fairleigh Dickinson Knights | 38.4% |
| Spread Cover % for Le Moyne Dolphins | 51.3% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 60.6% / Under: 39.4% |
| Average Total Points | 144.9 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-33, 43] |

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🏀 Matchup: Le Moyne Dolphins vs Fairleigh Dickinson Knights
💸 Public Bets
[Le Moyne 52% / Fairleigh Dickinson 48%]
💰 Money Distribution
[Le Moyne 57% / Fairleigh Dickinson 43%]
💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]
📉 Line Movement
[Spread opened around -5 to -5.5, tightened to -4.5 indicating some home support]
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+2.5% on Le Moyne spread; sim cover and alignment converge positively despite vig]

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Will Amica (Le Moyne) / Over 16.5 Points / -115 / 72% / Leads team scoring in recent outings averaging 18+ vs similar defenses, high usage in home games.
Player Prop #2: Oroudjo Habeeb (Le Moyne) / Over 7.5 Rebounds / -120 / 70% / Dominant on boards with 9+ avg recently, exploits FDU’s weak interior allowing high rebound rates.
Player Prop #3: Sean Moore (Fairleigh Dickinson) / Over 12.5 Points / -110 / 68% / Primary scorer hitting 14+ in 70% of games, favorable matchup vs Le Moyne’s recent poor defense.

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⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment on the spread aligns closely with money percentages favoring Le Moyne, signaling market consensus without heavy distortion, making the home side optimal. Recent games for both teams feature high totals well above the 139.5 line, supporting an over play despite minor public under bias. Overall scoring outlook points to a 145-point average, favoring overs based on offensive trends and defensive lapses.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Le Moyne — sim and metrics confirm the edge.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

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