Liberty vs New Mexico State

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-15 06:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-15 10:38 AM EST

Liberty vs New Mexico State on 2026-01-15

💰 Best Bet #1 [Liberty / Spread / -9.5 at -110 / 55% / Liberty’s strong home defense and recent form give them an edge to cover, supported by simulation cover rate and line stability.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Total / 140.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams’ offensive efficiencies suggest a moderate-scoring affair, with average total aligning slightly above the line based on pace and rebounding metrics.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Liberty / Moneyline / -450 / 75% / Dominant win probability from metrics and home advantage outweighs the juice on the favorite.]

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Liberty | 75.2% |
| Win % for New Mexico State | 24.8% |
| Spread Cover % for Liberty | 55.3% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52.1% / Under: 47.9% |
| Average Total Points | 142.3 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12.5, 28.4] |

Game Times
ET: 6:00 PM
CT: 5:00 PM
MT: 4:00 PM
PT: 3:00 PM
AKT: 2:00 PM
HST: 12:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
[70% Liberty / 30% New Mexico State]

💰 Money Distribution
[55% Liberty / 45% New Mexico State]

💹 Market Alignment
[Divergent]

📉 Line Movement
[Line moved from -8.5 to -9.5 despite heavy public action on Liberty, indicating some sharp resistance on the underdog.]

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3% on Liberty spread; simulation probabilities exceed implied odds, with home efficiency and recent trends providing value despite public lean.]

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors Liberty, but divergent money distribution suggests sharp action on New Mexico State, creating a potential fade opportunity if EV holds; however, metrics align more with following the favorite given home advantage and defensive matchup. Overall game scoring outlook points to a moderate total, as Liberty’s controlled pace limits explosive outputs while New Mexico State’s offense struggles on the road. Contrarian logic applies mildly due to line movement, but math supports Liberty’s edge.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Liberty — simulation and contextual metrics confirm the highest probability on the favorite covering and winning outright.

Highlights unavailable.