NCAAB
LIU Sharks vs 
Chicago State
League: NCAAB | Game Time: 7:00 PM ET • 6:00 PM CT • 5:00 PM MT • 4:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-26 08:19 AM EST
💰 Best Bet #1 LIU Sharks / -12.5 / -110 / 68% / Recent form shows LIU averaging 79 PPG with strong home defense; Chicago State struggling offensively at 61 PPG road average, public bets even but money 56% on dog signals value.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / 139.5 / -110 / 64% / Combined recent totals average 138; Chicago State’s low-scoring losses (avg 120 total) and public/money 56-60% under align with defensive metrics.
💰 Best Bet #3 LIU Sharks / Moneyline / -900 / 93% / Overwhelming win probability from simulation and form disparity, heavy public/sharp alignment on heavy favorite.
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for LIU Sharks | 92.3% |
| Win % for Chicago St Cougars | 7.7% |
| Spread Cover % for LIU Sharks | 67.8% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.2% / Under: 51.8% |
| Average Total Points | 139.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-3.2, 39.1] |
🏀 LIU Sharks vs Chicago St Cougars
💸 Public Bets
[49% / 51%]
💰 Money Distribution
[44% / 56%]
💹 Market Alignment
Divergent
📉 Line Movement
Stable across books at -12.5
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on LIU -12.5; simulation cover rate exceeds implied 52.4% probability from -110 odds, supported by Chicago State’s poor efficiency vs mid-majors.
Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Andre Cirillo (LIU Sharks) / Over 16.5 Points / -112 / 75% / Leads team at 18.2 PPG recent games, high usage (28%) vs Chicago State’s weak perimeter D allowing 75 PPG.
Player Prop #2: Jahmal McNeil (Chicago St Cougars) / Under 12.5 Points / -108 / 71% / Averaging 10.8 PPG on road, low volume (18%) in losses to superior defenses.
Player Prop #3: Justin Steers (LIU Sharks) / Over 8.5 Rebounds / -110 / 69% / Grabbing 9.4 RPG lately, exploits Chicago State’s 38% defensive rebound rate.
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public bets split evenly on spread but money leans Chicago State +12.5 (56%), creating contrarian value on LIU cover aligned with simulation (68%) and recent form edges. Sharp resistance to public ML fade unnecessary as alignment heavy on home win. Game projects low-scoring under with Chicago State’s offensive woes (61 PPG road) vs LIU’s solid D.
🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Chicago State +12.5 — LIU Sharks -12.5 holds strongest EV.
Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.
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