Los Angeles Chargers vs Philadelphia Eagles

League: NFL | Date: 2025-12-08 08:15 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-08 05:50 PM EST

Los Angeles Chargers vs Philadelphia Eagles on 2025-12-08

💰 Best Bet #1 [Los Angeles Chargers / Spread / +2.5 at -110 / 56% / Chargers cover value with Eagles’ key offensive line injuries weakening protection against LA’s pass rush, supported by RLM favoring underdog despite public lean.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 42.5 at -110 / 58% / Both defenses rank top-10 in points allowed per game this season; Herbert’s hand injury limits big plays, projecting low-scoring affair below line based on recent trends.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Philadelphia Eagles / Moneyline / -135 / 54% / Eagles edge in win probability from superior red-zone efficiency and home-field adjusted metrics, though tempered by injuries.]

Game Times

ET: 08:15 PM
CT: 07:15 PM
MT: 06:15 PM
PT: 05:15 PM
AKT: 04:15 PM
HST: 02:15 PM

💸 Public Bets
[30% / 70%]

💰 Money Distribution
[45% / 55%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Divergent]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Eagles -3 but moved to -2.5 despite 70% public on Philadelphia, indicating sharp money on Chargers side amid injury concerns for Eagles’ line.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3% on Chargers spread / RLM and money % divergence signal value against public overreaction to Eagles’ form, with EV confirmed by simulation cover rate exceeding implied odds probability.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Los Angeles Chargers | 46% |
| Win % for Philadelphia Eagles | 54% |
| Spread Cover % for Los Angeles Chargers (+3) | 56% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 42% / Under: 58% |
| Average Total Points | 40.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-7, +5] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Justin Herbert / Under Passing Yards / 225.5 / -115 / 65% / Herbert’s fractured non-throwing hand reduces velocity and accuracy; Chargers average 210 pass yds in his limited starts this season, facing Eagles’ top-5 pass defense allowing under 220 ypg.
Player Prop #2: Saquon Barkley / Over Rushing Yards / 85.5 / -110 / 72% / Barkley hits 90+ yds in 7 of 10 games with Eagles’ O-line intact, but even without Johnson, matchup vs Chargers’ 25th-ranked rush D favors volume; projects 95 yds on 20+ carries.
Player Prop #3: DeVonta Smith / Over Receptions / 5.5 / -120 / 68% / Smith averages 6.2 catches vs similar defenses, with Hurts targeting him 8+ times per game; Eagles’ usage rate spikes without full line, exploiting Chargers’ secondary weaknesses allowing 6+ rec to WR1.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public heavily favors the Eagles at 70%, but money distribution leans slightly toward the Chargers at 45%, creating divergence that aligns with sharp action via RLM. Fading the public on the Chargers spread proves optimal as metrics show value in the underdog with Eagles’ injuries to Carter and Johnson compromising their offense against LA’s strong front seven. Overall game scoring tilts low, with both teams’ defenses excelling in EPA per play (top-8 rankings) and recent games averaging under 41 points combined.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Fade the public on Los Angeles Chargers / Highest EV from simulation and market signals points to underdog cover as the mathematical edge.]

Highlights unavailable.