MLB
Los Angeles Dodgers vs 
Toronto Blue Jays
League: MLB | Date: 2025-10-28 08:08 PM EDT | Last Updated: 2025-10-28 04:56 PM EDT
💰 Best Bet #1 [Los Angeles Dodgers / Spread / -1.5 at -101 / 51% / Simulation indicates strong cover probability with home-field edge and superior pitching matchup outweighing recent marathon game fatigue]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 8 at -110 / 60% / Both teams feature elite starters in Ohtani and Bieber, with defensive efficiencies suggesting a controlled, low-scoring affair per recent playoff trends]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Los Angeles Dodgers / Moneyline / -206 / 65% / Dodgers’ overall series dominance and simulation win rate align with sharp money, providing clear value despite public favoritism]
⚾ Matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers vs Toronto Blue Jays on 2025-10-28
Game Times
ET: 8:08 PM
CT: 7:08 PM
MT: 6:08 PM
PT: 5:08 PM
AKT: 4:08 PM
HST: 2:08 PM
💸 Public Bets
Dodgers 68% / Blue Jays 32%
💰 Money Distribution
Dodgers 62% / Blue Jays 38%
💹 Market Alignment
Divergent
📉 Line Movement
Dodgers opened at -155 moneyline but moved to -205 amid heavy public action, with spread shifting from -1.5 (-110) to -1.5 (-101); total steady at 8 despite Game 3’s high-inning outlier.
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on Dodgers spread and under total, driven by simulation probabilities exceeding implied odds and reverse line hints of sharp Jays support not fully offsetting Dodgers’ home metrics.
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Los Angeles Dodgers | 64.7% |
| Win % for Toronto Blue Jays | 23.4% |
| Spread Cover % for Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 | 50.9% |
| Spread Cover % for Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 | 13.9% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over 8: 40.1% / Under 8: 59.9% |
| Average Total Runs | 8.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin (Dodgers – Jays) | [-4, 7] |
Top 3 Player Props
– Player Prop #1: Shohei Ohtani / Over Strikeouts / 6.5 at -120 / 68% / Ohtani’s K/BB ratio excels against Jays’ high-strikeout lineup (25% rate), with xFIP under 3.00 in playoffs supporting multi-inning dominance.
– Player Prop #2: Freddie Freeman / Over Hits / 0.5 at -150 / 72% / Freeman’s .320 BABIP and hot streak post-Game 3 walk-off, facing Bieber’s vulnerability to lefties (OPS+ 110 allowed).
– Player Prop #3: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. / Under Total Bases / 1.5 at +105 / 62% / Guerrero’s recent slump (.180 last 7 games) meets Dodgers’ strong defensive efficiency and Ohtani’s groundball induction (45% rate).
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public heavily favors the Dodgers, but money percentage shows divergence suggesting some sharp action on the Jays amid Ohtani’s mound return; however, metrics and simulation favor following the line without a full fade, as contextual home advantage post-Game 3 win bolsters LA. Overall scoring outlook leans low, with both bullpens rested and starters’ ERAs under 3.50 projecting under the total based on playoff suppression trends. No major injuries reported, though travel fatigue for Toronto could widen the edge.
🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Dodgers moneyline — simulation and market consensus confirm the highest probability despite the juice.
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