Los Angeles Kings vs Calgary Flames

League: NHL | Date: 2025-12-13 10:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-13 10:30 AM EST

Los Angeles Kings vs Calgary Flames on 2025-12-13

Game Times

ET: 10:00 PM
CT: 9:00 PM
MT: 8:00 PM
PT: 7:00 PM
AKT: 6:00 PM
HST: 4:00 PM

💰 Best Bet #1 [Calgary Flames / +1.5 / -190 / 73% / Simulation indicates Kings cover -1.5 only 27% of the time, favoring Flames to lose by one or fewer goals or win outright, supported by Calgary’s defensive resilience in recent road games]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / 5.5 / -110 / 55% / Data points to under as slightly more likely at 54%, but NHL historical trends flip the recommendation to over due to regression in low-event games]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Los Angeles Kings / -150 / 60% / Home-ice advantage and superior xGF metrics give Kings the edge despite public heavy backing]

💸 Public Bets
[Kings 65% / Flames 35%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Kings 52% / Flames 48%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Kings -1.5 (+155) and moved to +160, with moneyline shifting from -140 to -150 on Kings despite 65% public tickets, indicating some sharp action on Flames.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+4% on Flames +1.5, driven by reverse line movement against public sentiment and simulation cover rates exceeding implied odds probability]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Los Angeles Kings | 44.42% |
| Win % for Calgary Flames | 36.65% |
| Kings Puck Line -1.5 Cover % | 26.7% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 45.8% / Under: 54.2% |
| Average Total Goals | 5.36 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-4, 4] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Anze Kopitar / Over 0.5 Points / 0.5 / -120 / 65% / Kopitar’s 0.8 points per game average in home matchups, boosted by power-play usage against Flames’ middling PK (78%), aligns with over hitting in 70% of recent games
Player Prop #2: Adrian Kempe / Over 2.5 Shots on Goal / 2.5 / -110 / 60% / Kempe averages 3.2 SOG per game this season, exploiting Calgary’s high-danger defense allowing 12 shots per game to wingers, with over in 65% of home starts
Player Prop #3: Nazem Kadri / Over 0.5 Points / 0.5 / +110 / 55% / Kadri’s 0.7 points per game on the road, facing Kings’ penalty-prone defense (top-10 in PIM), supports over in even-strength scenarios based on current season xGA data

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors the Kings at 65%, aligning with money distribution at 52%, suggesting market consensus without strong sharp resistance, though reverse line movement hints at value on the Flames side. Following the public on Kings ML carries neutral EV, but fading on the puck line offers a mathematical edge due to simulation outcomes and contextual factors like Calgary’s recent form. Overall game scoring outlook leans toward moderate totals, with both teams’ defensive metrics (Kings xGA/60 at 2.8, Flames at 3.2) capping high-event play but allowing for flipped over value.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Fade the public on Kings / Bet Flames +1.5] — Simulation and line movement confirm the highest probability for Calgary covering as underdogs.

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