Los Angeles Kings vs New Jersey Devils

League: NHL | Date: 2025-11-01 09:10 PM EDT | Last Updated: 2025-11-01 06:23 PM EDT

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 [New Jersey Devils / Spread / +1.5 at -260 / 78% / Simulation shows tight margin with 95% CI near zero; Devils cover in 78.5% of sims despite road trip, backed by strong xGF metrics and Kings’ recent PK struggles.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 5.5 at +114 / 52% / Avg simulated goals at 5.8 but under hits 51.7%; both teams rank mid-pack in GA, with Markstrom and Kuemper posting sub-.900 save % in high-danger recently, favoring low-scoring affair.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [New Jersey Devils / Moneyline / -105 / 52% / 52.2% win probability in 10k sims edges out Kings’ home advantage; Devils’ top-5 Corsi % vs. Kings’ fatigue from back-to-back travel supports value on road underdog.]

🏒 Matchup: Los Angeles Kings vs New Jersey Devils on 2025-11-01

Game Times

ET: 9:10 PM
CT: 8:10 PM
MT: 7:10 PM
PT: 6:10 PM
AKT: 5:10 PM
HST: 3:10 PM

💸 Public Bets

Kings 58% / Devils 42%

💰 Money Distribution

Kings 52% / Devils 48%

💹 Market Alignment

Aligned

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at Kings -110 ML and total 6, shifting slightly to Kings -115 and total 5.5 on some books amid balanced action; no major RLM, with stable puck line at Devils +1.5 -260 despite public leaning home.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3.2% on Devils ML and +1.8% on Under 5.5; sim-derived probs exceed implied odds (e.g., 52.2% win > 51.2% implied at -105), justified by Devils’ superior recent form (8-3-0) and Kings’ injury-depleted defense.

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Jesper Bratt / Over 0.5 Points / Line at -120 / Confidence 65% / Bratt’s 0.85 PPP/60 leads Devils’ top line; vs. Kings’ middling PK (78.2%), expect multi-point upside in even-strength matchups with high usage.
Player Prop #2: Anze Kopitar / Over 2.5 Shots on Goal / Line at +110 / Confidence 58% / Kopitar averages 2.8 SOG lately, exploiting Devils’ 12th-ranked shot suppression; home-ice boosts volume in projected close game.
Player Prop #3: Jacob Markstrom / Under 28.5 Saves / Line at -115 / Confidence 62% / Markstrom faces Devils’ low-avg 28 shots/G; sim avg total goals 5.8 suggests under 30 shots needed, aligning with Kings’ possession edge at home.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Los Angeles Kings | 47.8% |
| Win % for New Jersey Devils | 52.2% |
| Puck Line Cover % for Los Angeles Kings (+1.5) | 78.5% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.3% / Under: 51.7% |
| Average Total Points/Runs/Goals | 5.80 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-0.10, 0.00] |

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment favors the home Kings slightly, aligning with money distribution and stable lines, indicating no sharp resistance or need to fade; math supports following the sim edge on Devils due to their elite xGF/xGA (top-3 league) against Kings’ vulnerable blue line (injuries to Burroughs, Foegele). Overall scoring outlook leans under, with both goalies (Kuemper .915 SV%, Markstrom .910) and mid-tempo pace projecting below 6 goals amid Devils’ road rest advantage. Contrarian logic doesn’t apply here—consensus points to value on Devils covering and low total without overreaction to Kings’ home record.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with New Jersey Devils — 52.2% sim win probability and positive EV on ML/+1.5 outweigh home bias in this evenly matched, low-scoring tilt.

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