Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns vs Tulane Green Wave

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-11 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-11 06:02 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Tulane Green Wave / Spread / -5.5 at -110 / 60% / Tulane’s superior adjusted offensive efficiency (108) against Louisiana’s weaker defense (108) suggests a comfortable cover, bolstered by early season form where Tulane has shown better scoring punch.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 135.5 at -112 / 55% / Both teams play at moderate tempos (68-70) with defensive efficiencies limiting possessions; recent games for Louisiana averaged 128 total points, favoring a lower-scoring affair despite home crowd.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Tulane Green Wave / Moneyline / -245 / 70% / Market consensus and simulation align on Tulane’s edge in efficiency ratings and road performance against similar mid-major opponents.]

Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns vs Tulane Green Wave on 2025-11-12

Game Times

ET: 08:00 PM
CT: 07:00 PM
MT: 06:00 PM
PT: 05:00 PM
AKT: 04:00 PM
HST: 02:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

[Tulane 65% / Louisiana 35%]

💰 Money Distribution

[Tulane 60% / Louisiana 40%]

💹 Market Alignment

[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement

[Opened at Tulane -5, moved to -5.5 with balanced action; no significant RLM indicating sharp divergence.]

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+3% on Tulane -5.5; implied probability (52.4%) undervalues simulation-derived cover rate of 55%, creating value amid aligned public and money flow.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns | 29.0% |
| Win % for Tulane Green Wave | 71.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns | 45.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 136.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-15.2, 4.8] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster and injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans toward the favorite Tulane, aligning with money distribution and line stability, supporting a follow rather than fade. Mathematical edges favor Tulane’s cover given efficiency mismatches, though no contrarian signals emerge. Overall game scoring outlook points to a controlled pace with defenses holding firm, tilting toward the under based on tempo and early-season defensive trends.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Follow the public with Tulane] — simulation and market data confirm the highest probability on the road favorite covering and winning outright.

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