Louisville vs Kentucky

League: NCAAF | Date: 2025-11-29 12:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-29 08:51 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Kentucky / +2.5 / -110 / 62% / Reverse line movement from -6.5 amid Louisville RB injuries signals sharp action on Wildcats despite public favoritism toward home team]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 52.5 at -110 / 58% / Both teams’ recent games show variable totals but RB absences limit Louisville explosiveness, defensive strengths converge for lower-scoring affair]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Louisville / Moneyline / -145 / 59% / Home team retains edge in win probability per simulations and season form despite adjusted spread]

Louisville vs Kentucky on 2025-11-29

Game Times
ET: 12:00 PM
CT: 11:00 AM
MT: 10:00 AM
PT: 9:00 AM
AKT: 8:00 AM
HST: 6:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
Louisville 72% / Kentucky 28%

💰 Money Distribution
Louisville 74% / Kentucky 26%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Opened Louisville -6.5, moved to -2.5 despite heavy public and money on Cardinals, indicating professional action on Kentucky.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Louisville | 55.2% |
| Win % for Kentucky | 44.8% |
| Spread Cover % for Louisville (-2.5) | 48.1% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 49.3% / Under: 50.7% |
| Average Total Points | 52.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-19.2, 23.7] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Caullin Lacy / Over 64.5 Receiving Yards / -115 / 72% / Louisville WR leads receptions with high target share (25% usage), Kentucky secondary vulnerable to explosive plays (allows 12.3 YPR current season).
Player Prop #2: Ja’Mori Maclin / Over 45.5 Rushing Yards / -110 / 68% / Kentucky RB primary back with elevated workload amid Louisville run defense middling (4.2 YPC allowed), recent form 52 YPG.
Player Prop #3: Miller Moss / Under 248.5 Passing Yards / -112 / 65% / Louisville QB faces Kentucky pass D ranking top-40 in success rate; RB injuries force conservative play-calling, Moss avg 225 YPG last 3.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors Louisville with 72% tickets and 74% money, but divergent market shows reverse line movement toward Kentucky amid confirmed Louisville RB injuries (Keyjuan Brown, Isaac Brown out), supporting a fade of the public. Sharp action aligns with simulations giving Kentucky spread value. Overall game scoring outlook leans slightly under with depleted Louisville run game capping possessions and both defenses solid in havoc rates (Lou 18%, Ky 16% season avg).

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Kentucky +2.5 — reverse line movement, injury impact, and simulation cover probability provide strongest mathematical edge.

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