Louisville vs Montana

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-12-20 12:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-20 10:21 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Louisville / Spread / -30.5 at -110 / 65% / Louisville’s dominant home efficiency and Montana’s poor road defensive rebounding create a strong edge, with simulation covering 60% of scenarios despite public heavy lean.
💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 156.5 at -110 / 58% / Both teams exhibit mid-tempo play with Louisville’s high offensive rating pushing scoring; recent home games for Louisville average 82 points scored, favoring over based on pace and defensive lapses.
💰 Best Bet #3 Louisville / Moneyline / -5000 / 95% / Overwhelming simulation win probability and historical dominance against mid-majors confirm value on the heavy favorite at home.

NCAAB: Louisville vs Montana on 2025-12-20

Game Times

ET: 12:00 PM
CT: 11:00 AM
MT: 10:00 AM
PT: 9:00 AM
AKT: 8:00 AM
HST: 6:00 AM

💸 Public Bets

Louisville 92% / Montana 8%

💰 Money Distribution

Louisville 78% / Montana 22%

💹 Market Alignment

Aligned

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at -29.5 and moved to -30.5 with heavy public action on Louisville, indicating steady support for the favorite without significant sharp resistance.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3.2% on Louisville spread; simulation probabilities and efficiency metrics confirm value despite public lean, as Montana’s road defense ranks poorly in the current season.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Louisville | 95.0% |
| Win % for Montana | 5.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Louisville | 60.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 55.0% / Under: 45.0% |
| Average Total Points | 155.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [20.0, 60.0] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Louisville, aligning with sharp money distribution and line stability, making a follow on the favorite optimal as metrics like adjusted efficiency and home splits support the blowout potential. Montana’s recent road struggles and turnover rates amplify the edge without contrarian signals. Overall game scoring leans moderately high, with Louisville’s pace and Montana’s defensive inefficiencies projecting above the total line based on current season offensive ratings.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with Louisville — simulation and market consensus point to a dominant home win with positive EV on the spread.

Highlights unavailable.