Louisville vs Virginia

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-13 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-13 11:07 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Louisville / Spread / -3 at -110 / 55% / Louisville’s home advantage and Virginia’s recent road struggles align with the simulation’s 52% cover rate, bolstered by sharp money on the favorite despite public lean.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 155 at -110 / 54% / Both teams’ defensive efficiencies in the current season suggest a grind-it-out affair, with average total of 152 falling below the line and injuries limiting scoring depth.

💰 Best Bet #3 Louisville / Moneyline / -150 / 58% / Higher win probability from Monte Carlo runs favors the Cardinals at home against a Virginia squad hampered by key absences.

Louisville vs Virginia on 2026-01-13

Game Times

ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

Louisville 62% / Virginia 38%

💰 Money Distribution

Louisville 58% / Virginia 42%

💹 Market Alignment

Aligned

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at -3.5 for Louisville and has held steady at -3, with minimal movement indicating balanced action despite public favoritism toward the home team.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3.2% on Louisville spread, driven by reverse line stability against public percentage and simulation convergence showing value in the home cover.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Louisville | 58% |
| Win % for Virginia | 40% |
| Spread Cover % for Louisville | 52% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 152 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-15, 18] |

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans toward Louisville, aligning with sharp money distribution and line stability, making a follow on the favorite the optimal mathematical play without a clear fade opportunity. Virginia’s defensive prowess is tempered by Louisville’s home efficiency, but injuries on both sides point to a controlled pace. Overall game scoring outlook favors the under, as both offenses average below the total line in recent matchups against similar defenses.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with Louisville — simulation and market consensus highlight the strongest probability for a home win and cover.

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