Marist vs Fairfield

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-17 02:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-17 12:00 PM EST

Marist vs Fairfield on 2026-01-17

💰 Best Bet #1 [Marist / Spread / -5.5 at -110 / 58% / Marist holds a strong home advantage with six straight wins at home and leads the MAAC in points allowed per game at 61.7, supporting a cover against Fairfield’s recent offensive momentum.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Total / 140.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams show moderate scoring trends in recent MAAC play, with Marist’s efficient field goal percentage (45.1%, first in conference) likely pushing the total higher despite defensive strengths.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Marist / Moneyline / -250 / 65% / Simulation and home dominance give Marist a clear edge, with an 81.5% implied win probability aligning with current season form.]

Game Times

ET: 2:00 PM
CT: 1:00 PM
MT: 12:00 PM
PT: 11:00 AM
AKT: 10:00 AM
HST: 8:00 AM

💸 Public Bets

[Marist 70% / Fairfield 30%]

💰 Money Distribution

[Marist 65% / Fairfield 35%]

💹 Market Alignment

[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement

[Line opened at -6 and steadied at -5.5 with balanced action, no significant reverse movement despite public lean toward Marist.]

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+3.2% on Marist spread / Consensus from home form, defensive metrics, and simulation win probability exceeds implied odds, creating value without contrarian signals.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Marist | 65.2% |
| Win % for Fairfield | 33.8% |
| Spread Cover % for Marist | 58.3% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52.1% / Under: 47.9% |
| Average Total Points | 140.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12.5, 22.3] |

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Marist, aligning with sharp money indicators and mathematical projections from current season data, making a follow strategy optimal rather than fading. No major reverse line movement or injury disruptions alter this consensus. The game outlook leans toward moderate scoring, with Marist’s top-ranked MAAC defense capping Fairfield but allowing enough for the total to trend over based on efficiency metrics.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Follow the public with Marist] — home edge and defensive prowess provide the strongest probability of success.

Highlights unavailable.